NBA Premium Play 01/04: Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 721 Sacramento Kings @ 722 Denver Nuggets

Projected line: 207 points | Denver by 15 points
Sacramento is on a bad spot on a back to back game, after having played at Memphis, so Denver has immediately a physical edge, however the main reasons for these two plays are matchup wise! Yesterday, Sacramento allowed Memphis to score 72 points in the paint, 21 fast break points and 29-40 FG at the rim. All of this with Conley coming out of the bench and ZBO not playing! If the pathetic interior and transition defense of the Kings were pounded by a shorthanded Grizzlies, then against Denver, I don't expect anything different: Sacramento is still allowing their opponents to shoot 72% FG at the rim and 17.2 fast break points per game! That's good news for Denver, as they are 1st in points in the paint with 49.7 ppg and also 1st in fast break points with 24 ppg, while 21% of their offensive plays are in transition, where they have a nice number of 1.25 PPP! Denver will just destroy them on this department.

I predict this contest to be a really fast pace game and a line of 203,5 points is just too low. I also expect a big blowout by the Nuggets on this game with their superior depth and playing style against a team who is just an excellent matchup for them. I'll be taking both Denver and the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Denver Nuggets (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker