NBA - 511 Houston Rockets @ 512 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: 200 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
The Lakers are coming from two tough back to back games against Denver. In the second game at Denver, Kobe Bryant was selfish and tried to beat the Nuggets on his own when both Gasol and Bynum were having a clear edge downlow against Denver's frontcourt. A 18-23 FG mark at the rim is a clear evidence of that! For today, we can expect Kobe to be more selective on his shots and to involve himself more with his teammates, as he always does that after having a bad game! This will actually be quite good for the Lakers, as Houston is the worst defense at the rim in the league by allowing a whooping 72.3% FG on this area of the court! They are also last on points in the paint allowed with 54.5 ppg, more 4.5 ppg than the second worst mark in the league! Besides this, the Rockets have Kevin Martin, who is a terrible defender and so, Kobe will have a good matchup today. Considering this mismatch at the SG position and the frontcourt edge of the Lakers and we can surely expect a great offensive outcome for the Lakers today!
On the other side, Houston's offense is well balanced and they will surely try to set this game to an uptempo pace because of the huge mismatch downlow! The Rockets are a smart offensive team and solve their problem of not having a superstar by distributing very well their short locs! Kevin Martin and Chase Buddinger are two very quick players and I believe they can put a lot of pressure on the wing defense of the Lakers, who has surely lived better days.
I expect the Lakers to have a huge offensive game in here, considering their frontcourt edge and in the Kobe/Martin matchup, while the Rockets with their smart offense and very quick players will definitely score their points as well against a permissive defense of the Lakers. Therefore, I came up with a projection of 200 points for this match, well above the totals line set by the sportsbooks. So, I'll be taking the over in this match as my third Triple Dime Play of the season!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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