Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs Portugal
The “OVER’s” are hitting an absurd mark of 90% so far in the tournament (10-1 ATS) and obviously, the totals line of this contest is drifting towards the OVER which created some interesting value w/ UNDER. Note that I would play w/ Under in a regular 2.5 goals line ~ -110 / +110!
For those who follow these major tournaments, particularly the last EURO2012, I can say that you will watch basically the same Portuguese team on the field: they are extremely well organized, their tactical discipline and work-rate is outstanding – one of the best in the world and this fact alone, makes them a very tough team to beat! Their losses at this level have been all by one goal max and even @ penalty shootout vs. Spain in EURO2012. The problem for Portugal relies on the front… they don’t have many depth and versatility on the front, their strikers are more focused in working for the team and don't have the proper scoring abilities but, fortunately for them, they have Cristiano Ronaldo – the world’s best player and really an incredible goal scoring machine! The problem is that CR7 isn't 100% fit, and his health is really a mystery. He played in the last friendly for Portugal and looked decent, but I doubt that we will watch him @100% in any game of this competition.
Germany is the clear favorite to win this group but I expect them to struggle in here. Lately they have been playing without a “natural” striker on the front much like Pep Guardiola’s teams w/ a “false 9”. Because of that, they put more men on the midfield and they will control the ball possession quite easily. However, this bodes well for the Portuguese team who excels in playing without the ball, laid back a bit and then, throw quick fast paced transition plays w/ the main target being (obviously) Cristiano Ronaldo.
W/ current odds, Germany is 50% favored to win the game… I have them w/ 45% max of chances so, in my opinion we are getting some value w/ Portugal AH (+0.5). I expect this contest to be played mostly in the center of midfield w/ both teams having few chances to score. Sooner or later we’ll watch a Draw happening in the WC and this contest is great candidate for that.
NOTE: having the chance to grab Under 2.5 Goals @ plus money (odds > +100 / 2.00) has good value as well!
Pick: 1.5 units ("Half" Single Dime Play) on Portugal AH (+0.5) @ -103 / 1.97 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.75 Goals @ -112 / 1.89 on Pinnacle Sports
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