NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 San Antonio Spurs
Play #1
I have a small lean w/ SAS in this contest but this 6-pts spread line is tight IMO and so, we are not getting that much value. Note that the fact that both teams are getting an extra day of rest could help more the Heat than the Spurs.
After such two beatings, it is going to be tough for the Heat to win the series, let alone another game. Obviously, being coach Spoelstra a smart guy in making adjustments, we can expect MIA to make some major changes for this contest. Well, Miami need some major adjustments in both ends of the floor, but I think that they are more focused on the defensive end than exactly offensively…
It all started w/ the fact that Spoelstra mentioned that Udonis Haslem could get more minutes tonight – this is basically a “defensive minded” adjustment as Haslem is almost worthless on the offensive end and MIA could abandon their "small ball" strategy because they were literally spanked playing that style in L2 games .
MIA simply can’t play defense the way they are doing against the Spurs. To do so, It requires youth and extreme athleticism and all the trapping that MIA is doing vs. SAS’s ball handlers have turned against them – credit to coach Pop! I expect MIA to surprise a bit defensively in here as they will not play their usual defensive game plan and rather play more normal man-to-man defense and even some zone defense – this is a gut feeling of mine!
I thought that SAS wanted badly to push the pace in the series, but L2 games were extreme slow paced affairs! SAS feels comfortably in playing in such style right now, it minimizes the chance of committing TO’s (13 and 14 TO’s in L2 games after committing 23 in G1) and therefore, I expect this contest to also be a relatively slow paced game.
The Spurs’ defense has been incredibly smart in the last games… they are making the right calls in almost every MIA offensive possession: daring Wade & Chalmers to hit outside shots, daring Bosh to drive while closing out aggressively vs. him etc etc. Only LeBron James is doing his usual great stuff and still, Leonard is doing a tremendous job against him.
I expect this contest to be closer when compared to the L2 games w/ MIA’s defense being the biggest factor for that.
After such two beatings, it is going to be tough for the Heat to win the series, let alone another game. Obviously, being coach Spoelstra a smart guy in making adjustments, we can expect MIA to make some major changes for this contest. Well, Miami need some major adjustments in both ends of the floor, but I think that they are more focused on the defensive end than exactly offensively…
It all started w/ the fact that Spoelstra mentioned that Udonis Haslem could get more minutes tonight – this is basically a “defensive minded” adjustment as Haslem is almost worthless on the offensive end and MIA could abandon their "small ball" strategy because they were literally spanked playing that style in L2 games .
MIA simply can’t play defense the way they are doing against the Spurs. To do so, It requires youth and extreme athleticism and all the trapping that MIA is doing vs. SAS’s ball handlers have turned against them – credit to coach Pop! I expect MIA to surprise a bit defensively in here as they will not play their usual defensive game plan and rather play more normal man-to-man defense and even some zone defense – this is a gut feeling of mine!
I thought that SAS wanted badly to push the pace in the series, but L2 games were extreme slow paced affairs! SAS feels comfortably in playing in such style right now, it minimizes the chance of committing TO’s (13 and 14 TO’s in L2 games after committing 23 in G1) and therefore, I expect this contest to also be a relatively slow paced game.
The Spurs’ defense has been incredibly smart in the last games… they are making the right calls in almost every MIA offensive possession: daring Wade & Chalmers to hit outside shots, daring Bosh to drive while closing out aggressively vs. him etc etc. Only LeBron James is doing his usual great stuff and still, Leonard is doing a tremendous job against him.
I expect this contest to be closer when compared to the L2 games w/ MIA’s defense being the biggest factor for that.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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