Thursday, June 5, 2014

MLB Premium Card 06/04

MLB - 953 Philadelphia Phillies @ 954 Washington Nationals
MLB - 973 Miami Marlins @ 974 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. S. Strasburg)
(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs. D. Price)

Play #1

***PARLAY PLAY***

WAS ML:

WAS easily dismantled PHI last night and I think that they will keep rolling in this series. WAS collectively had a nice .286 BA & .901 OPS in that game while R. Zimmerman collected 2 hits & 1 RBI. They will face Burnett in here and after a strong start for the season, Burnett is clearly fading lately. In L5 starts he has allowed 6, 3, 3, 4 and 5 ER’s while his K/BB ratios were subpar as well. Curiously, his last great start was against WAS @ 05/03 in which Burnett held WAS to just 1 ER. However, things have changed… not only Burnett is struggling a bit lately, but also, WAS offense is rolling right now. On the other end, the struggling PHI offense will face a rested S. Strasburg that is coming from an easy win vs. TEX, so like yesterday, I expect PHI offense to struggle in here.

TB ML:

TB has lost the last 8 games – all on the road! So their price for tonight is a bit inflated and so, no way I’m going to take them @Runline. However, I expect them to be focused and motivated to bounce back in here. TB offense is struggling heavily lately, but note that in the two games @MIA, TB had more hits than MIA in both of them! MIA SP T. Koehler is one of the most overrated pitchers in the league w/ 3.18 ERA but w/ 4.34 FIP & 4.54 xFIP! Curiously, the reverse has been happening w/ Price: 4.27 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP & 2.83 xFIP! 


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Washington Nationals ML x 974 Tampa Bay Rays ML @ +126 / 2.26 on Betonline



MLB - 963 Toronto Blue Jays @ 964 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: R. Dickey vs. R. Porcello)

Play #2

I think that we are getting some nice value w/ TOR in here, as not only they are the best offensive team in the league but also, I believe that Dickey is in better form than Porcello. Dickey is coming from a subpar outing vs. KC in which he allowed 10 hits & 5 ER’s but, his 7/1 K/BB was a good indicator along w/ nice 3.46 FIP & 2.43 xFIP! He has good numbers vs. DET batters including a nice game LY w/ 7.0 IP, 2ER & 4/1 K/BB, so I expect him to be solid.

On the other end, we have a wild Rick Porcello on the mound. Porcello is a “pitching to contact” player and the fact that he is allowing so many walks lately is a bad sign – 9 BB’s in L3 outings! By putting so many base runners on the bases is dangerous especially when you are facing the hottest offense in the league – TOR is batting 0.300 in L14 days w/ 0.850 OPS! Good luck Porcello!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ R. Dickey) @ +102 / 2.02 on Bookmaker



MLB - 965 Boston Red Sox @ 966 Cleveland Indians

(Starting Pitchers: B. Workman vs. C. Kluber)

Play #3

I’m taking CLE to win the first 5 IP’s of the game! Corey Kluber has been pretty phenomenal as of late… he finished the month of May w/ stellar 1.74 FIP & 1.77 xFIP while facing some of the best offenses in the league – COL, BAL, DET & TOR! His matchup tonight, Brandon Workman is coming from b2b outings vs. TB. While he managed the damage w/ 2 and 3 ER’s allowed, he struggled a bit w/ pitch count (17.6 & 16.7 P/IP) and had poor 3/3 & 4/3 K/BB ratios to show. Note that he faced a cold TB offense while the Indians are hitting pretty well in this home span so I expect him to struggle heavily early on the game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Cleveland Indians 1st 5 Innings ML (w/ C. Kluber) @ -150 / 1.67 on Bookmaker



MLB - 969 Los Angeles Angels @ 970 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: G. Richards vs. J. Cosart)

Play #4

Garrett Richards got crushed in his last start vs. OAK, but I expect him to bounce back tonight. Richards has been solid all season long w/ 3.65 ERA and his advanced numbers are even better w/ 2.79 FIP, so I think that his disastrous performance vs. potent lineup of OAK was just an off day for him. On the other side, Jarred Cosart has overachieved and is due for a letdown. Despite allowing “only” 3, 3 and 1 ER’s in L3 starts, Cosart’s pitch count was super high w/ 20.4, 16.6 & 19.0 P/IP, obviously, he didn’t last long in those 3 starts (5.0, 6.1 & 5.0). Also note that his 2/4, 6/4 and 1/2 K/BB ratios were poor as well. He is a good matchup for the Angels’ offense tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ G. Richards) @ -135 / 1.74 on Bovada

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