NBA - 705 San Antonio Spurs @ 706 Miami Heat
Play #1 & #2
Some notes about Game 2:
This time, the Heat didn’t take any risks w/ LeBron James… James played the entire first quarter in Game 1 (the only player on the floor to play 12 straight minutes), but in G2, with 2:26 left in the first quarter, LeBron was replaced by D. Wade – lesson learnt!
On my series preview, I’ve said that Tiago Splitter could be a major factor (for both teams):
"Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion."
In the last game, he played only 19 minutes vs. 32 from Boris Diaw… It looks like Popovich doesn’t want to play “big” against the Heat right now, but it was w/ Splitter on the floor that the Spurs explored better their size edge down low – he had 5 assists!
His minutes-numbers quarter-by-quarter + SAS scoring + SAS points in the paint:
First Quarter - 6:14 | 26pts | 14pts paint
Second Quarter - 4:45 | 17pts | 6pts paint
Third Quarter - 5:30 | 35pts | 10pts paint
Fourth Quarter - 2:38 | 18pts | 4pts paint
The correlation w/ him on the floor + SAS scoring more points near the basket is pretty clear to me. Let’s see how many minutes Splitter will get tonight!
Like in the first game, the pace of the second half was slower when compared to the first half, and once again, the Heat looked more comfortable than the Spurs in the half court. Also, Game 2 was way slower than the first game of the series! In my opinion, the Spurs were “extra” focused in not turning the ball over after committing 23 TO’s in the first game and so, they played w/ a more conservative mindset that turned against them late in the 4th quarter. Popovich said it all: “You move it or you die,”
It was tough to lose w/ the Over in the last game as we “only” needed 44 points in the 4th quarter but both teams combined to score just 19 points in the last 6 minutes of the game.
For this third game of the series, I really think that “fatigue” will be a major factor. With the Spurs having a considerable edge in terms of depth, I expect them to be super competitive tonight.
Between games 1 and 2, both teams enjoyed 2 days off to rest. However between game 3 and tonight’s game, they had only one day to rest + travel from SA to MIA!
“The ball stuck to us,” Popovich said after the game. “We tried to do it individually and we’re not good enough to do that.
“We can’t put it in somebody’s hands and have them create everything for us. It’s got to be a group effort and we didn’t do that. That puts a lot of pressure on everything else.”
The fact that Spurs didn’t use their usual game plan of trying to tire out their opponent and lost the game is a good for tonight, because they will be more focused in this particular area, and this where the Spurs can really take some advantage over the Heat.
With the fatigue being a key factor, I expect the Heat’s offense to struggle a bit tonight. Note that they rely heavily on their starters – only 12 points in the last game came from the bench! According to NBA.com/stats, the Heat connected 55.3% FG in “contested shots” (26-47 FG) vs. 44.0% FG from the Spurs (22-50), so I expect a natural letdown from MIA offense in here.
Finally, rebounding could be a key factor in this potential low scoring game and the Spurs also has a considerable edge in my opinion. The battle for the glass was a tight one in the first game, but the Spurs clearly outrebounded MIA in the last game w/ reb/rate of 54.5%!
My fair line for this contest is MIA-2 & 194 points and therefore, I think that we have the proper edge to play both SAS+5 & Under 198 as my Single Dime Plays!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 San Antonio Spurs (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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