I have a small lean for SAS to win the NBA Finals this season, but at the current prices, (SAS priced about @ -140) simply there isn’t the proper value in my opinion to give SAS more than 58/60% of chances to win the title.
Some interesting thoughts about this matchup:
In the playoffs, MIA has faced CHA, BKN & IND. While these 3 teams have different styles of play (especially BKN when compared to CHA & IND), all of them played at some serious slow pace:
Regular Season Pace Factor Rankings:
CHA #21
BKN #25
IND #20
…
SAS #10
MIA opponent’s game plans were similar through the playoffs – slow down the pace and dominate down low. I have some major doubts that the Spurs will employ the same strategy in the Finals because simply that’s not their style.
Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion.
For this first game both teams are rested and almost 100% healthy (Tony Parker’s injury is the only question mark). If you remember, this didn’t happen last season as the Spurs were coming from a sweep 4-0 series against MEM and had 9 DAYS to rest & prepare G1, while the Heat had a brutal physical series vs. IND that went to the distance and therefore, they had just 2 days to prepare the first game of the NBA Finals.
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