Play #1 & #2
I have a small lean for SAS to win the NBA Finals this season, but at the current prices, (SAS priced about @ -140) simply there isn’t the proper value in my opinion to give SAS more than 58/60% of chances to win the title.
Some interesting thoughts about this matchup:
In the playoffs, MIA has faced CHA, BKN & IND. While these 3 teams have different styles of play (especially BKN when compared to CHA & IND), all of them played at some serious slow pace:
Regular Season Pace Factor Rankings:
CHA #21
BKN #25
IND #20
…
SAS #10
MIA opponent’s game plans were similar through the playoffs – slow down the pace and dominate down low. I have some major doubts that the Spurs will employ the same strategy in the Finals because simply that’s not their style.
Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion.
For this first game both teams are rested and almost 100% healthy (Tony Parker’s injury is the only question mark). If you remember, this didn’t happen last season as the Spurs were coming from a sweep 4-0 series against MEM and had 9 DAYS to rest & prepare G1, while the Heat had a brutal physical series vs. IND that went to the distance and therefore, they had just 2 days to prepare the first game of the NBA Finals.
I think that this series will be a relatively high scoring series and (even) more fun to watch than last season’s Finals.
Note that both teams’ strategy will favor a high scoring affair…
It is pretty clear to me that the Spurs will push the pace at every chance! They have a huge edge over MIA in terms of depth, so they will try to “tire” the Heat w/ their superior depth, and so, they will play w/ high tempo and energy. This has been their strategy for the whole season and I don’t think this will change in here.
On the other end, it’s pretty clear to me that MIA doesn’t want to play “BIG” against the Spurs, especially w/ Rashard Lewis playing so well lately for them! MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I don’t think that this duo will share a single minute on the court at the same time. MIA’s small ball lineup is clearly their best weapon and unlike last season, we will watch them play in this way since the start of the series.
I also have a small play w/ Miami in the first quarter…
SAS has been killing their opponents all season long in the second quarter when their great 2nd unit shares the ball and put an extra gear. However, I expect them to have some problems in the first quarter w/ Duncan + Splitter playing together against MIA’s small ball unit. Eventually, Splitter will come off and will be replaced by Boris Diaw, but until the substitution is made, MIA has some edge in my opinion.
Pick: 1.5 units ("Half" Single Dime Play) on 701 Miami Heat FIRST QUARTER (+1.5) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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