Thursday, June 5, 2014

MLB Free Premium Play 06/05: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 907 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 908 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: B. Arroyo vs. J. Nicasio)

***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***

I’m fading Bronson Arroyo in here against the desperate COL team. Arroyo’s FIP in his last starts aren’t good at all – 5.06, 4.23 & 4.49! I’ve just read a short article about him in fangraphs.com:

“Bronson Arroyo says his elbow doesn’t hurt while his manager says it does. I am guessing it does. His fastball velocity is down 1.4 mph from 2013 and his Zone% is down over 10% points (56.1% to 45.6%). His current PAIN value, comparing 2013 to 2014, is at 154 (more than 100 means he has traits of an injured pitcher). I believe he is hurt and is just trying to throw through it which I don’t think will turn out well.”

The avg. speed of his fastball in this season has been 85.7mph but in his L2 starts = just 84.4 & 84.9! This is not a good spot for him to throw @ COL so I’m fading him.

On the other end, Juan Nicasio is coming from an awful start @CLE in which he allowed 5 ER’s in 4.2 IP’s of work. I’m not putting too much focus in his last start because the Indians are red hot offensively and Nicasio turned out to be one of the victims. Nicasio has a solid 3-0 record & 3.60 ERA at home this season, so I think that he will bounce back tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ J. Nicasio) @ -127 / 1.79 on Betonline

No comments:

Post a Comment