Play #1 & #2
It is pretty curious that the L5 games of this series went all “Under” the total posted. The winning team of those games scored 112, 106, 105 and 117 points, so there was an obvious correlation between all those contests being blowout games w/ the fact that the losing team didn’t "show up" on the offensive end.
For tonight’s contest and for the first time in 6 games, I really think this contest is going to be a close game and naturally, both teams will score @ decent rate.
SAS’s coach Popovich made a smart move for G5, w/ Matt Bonner being inserted in the starting line instead of Tiago Splitter. Note that Bonner wasn’t particularly good at all… actually, he didn’t score a single point (0-4 FG!), but his presence made a big difference. Instead of facing a clogged paint, SAS offense had room to operate, and they were super aggressive. After being denied around the rim for two straight games + scoring just 3 fast break points, San Antonio bounced back to shoot 15-21 FG @ the rim & they scored 14 fast break points!
Not only the presence of Bonner created much more space for SAS offense, but also, it separated the Duncan-Splitter duo that has been very ineffective especially with the return of Ibaka.
In order to defeat OKC in G5, coach Pop was more focused w/ their own offensive problems than in stopping OKC offense…a good blueprint for tonight’s game.
I don’t think that OKC can make any substantial and impactful adjustments for tonight… by playing w/ a “stretch four”, OKC has to play small ball w/ SAS! They can play Ibaka @ center but still, he’ll have to deal w/ Duncan 1*1 and so, he won’t have the same room and space to help @ weak side.
Bottom line, I don’t expect SAS to struggle on the offensive end in the same way they struggled in G3 & G4!
Obviously, we can expect a strong bounce back from OKC - effort wise. OKC didn’t manage well the minutes of their star players in G4 (Durant played 41min and Westbrook 45min!) and they paid the price: they scored only 4 fast break points + “just” 20 free throws! We can expect them to be ultra aggressive for sure. However, the good news for SAS is that Popovich is a tremendous coach, and in the last game, only Leonard logged more than 30 minutes of action (33min), so fatigue won’t be an issue for SAS.
My fair line for this contest is OKC being a “marginal” factor and therefore, this 4-pts spread line has some value for SAS! I’m also playing w/ OVER because with the game on the line @ 4th quarter, we will get more points than the previous contests (trash time) in which both teams combined to score 38, 47, 44 & 36 pts!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523 San Antonio Spurs (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523/524 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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