NBA - 501 Denver Nuggets @ 502 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: 194 points | LA Lakers by 9 points
A game involving Denver this season is being a synonym of completely wild games with a very fast pace. However, this time, they will be playing on the road against a veteran team like the Lakers and the main question in here is to know if the Lakers will allow this game to be another wild game of the Nuggets or if they will use their experience to make this game slower and more prone to half-court basketball style. Considering the max speed pace of the Lakers so far on this season has been 88.20, the answer is in my opinion clearly negative. With Andrew Bynum back from suspension, I expect the Lakers to slow down the pace as much as possible and turn this contest into a half court game.
The Lakers may have had some problems at the beginning of this season, but with a TO/Rate of just 14.02%, they are showing that they can still take care of the ball very well, which will be an advantage for them on this matchup, as Denver's offense needs to force turnovers to their opponents to be effective and that won't happen today. The Nuggets have been struggling on defending at the rim by allowing 70% FG and considering the Lakers have been shooting 66% FG at this area and they have been playing without Bynum, I expect the Lakers to be able to pound the Nuggets at the rim on this contest. The Lakers are also quite good at Post Up plays with 1.04 PPP (Points Per Possession) and so, this game will be potentially good for them to explore the frontcourt. Even though Denver is an excellent defensive rebounding team, I believe the Lakers have an edge on the frontcourt, especially close to the basket, that will allow them to have a quite good offensive game today.
On the other side, Denver's offense may struggle on this contest, with the Lakers slowing down the pace of the game and committing few turnovers. The Nuggets love to make transition plays (24.3% volume with 1.18 PPP!!!), but the Lakers can defend quite well this kind of plays, having just allowing 0.8 PPP on transition plays from their opponents this season. Denver also likes to use ISO plays with 11.9% of volume and 1.21 PPP, but the Lakers can also defend quite well this kind of play with just 0.52 PPP allowed! Individually speaking, Arron Afflalo continues to struggle with his shooting percentage. He isn't in any kind of game shape whatsoever right now and it's very clear that his lack of success in shooting the ball has gotten into his mind. Considering he will be guarding Kobe Bryant on this contest, I expect the Lakers to have another important edge in here.
This is an early game for the Lakers, who will be playing at home with the crowd on their side on a special date. The matchup clearly favors the home team, who will be pounding the Nuggets close to the basket with a returning Bynum, while they will be able to control Denver's offense by not committing the errors the Nuggets need their opponents to make to be able to be efficient on their offense. Considering all these facts, I have a projection of the Lakers winning this game by 9 points and a totals line of 194 points. Therefore, looking at the lines currently offered, I'll be taking both the Lakers and the Under on this early game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Los Angeles Lakers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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