Saturday, January 14, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/13: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 821 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 822 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected lines: 190 points | LA Lakers by 15 points
I believe the Lakers will have a huge edge down low against Cleveland tonight. The last team that had a clear frontcourt edge over the Cavaliers was Utah and in that game, Big Al and Millsap had excellent games! Now against the Lakers, things are going to be even worse, as LAL is #1 on Post Up offense with 0.98 PPP, while the Cavs are the worst Post Up defense in the league by allowing 0.94 PPP! So, we can expect both Bynum and Gasol to completely dominate the matchup with the Cavs frontcourt tonight! We can also expect natural problems for Cleveland to guard Kobe, as Parker is too slow and the Cavs last a wing defensive specialist!

On the other side, Cleveland has been having a well balanced offense with the highlight being Irving and Jamison. Last night at Phoenix, Antawn Jamison showed that he no longer needs to be looked at as just a member of the supporting cast. The Cavs offense seems to be improving game after game and yesterday, they scored 30 points in the 1st quarter, the highest number of points scored by the team in a quarter so far in this season! Also Kyrie Irving has scored 20 points in his last 3 games and tonight, the veteran Derek Fisher gets the task of trying to stay in front of the 19-year old rookie. I have this sneaky suspicion that Fisher lacks the quickness to stay in front of Irving. The Cavs are in fact #4 in P&R Ball Handler offense with 0.87 PPP, with the Lakers struggles on defense being exactly on this kind of play, which isn't a surprise considering the slow footed guards they have.

I expect an easy win for the Lakers tonight, as they will have a much better spot, a huge mismatch in the frontcourt and Kobe Bryant is such in good form that he will completely outplay any opponents the Cavs send to guard him. However, the Cavs are a young, confident and aggressive team, with some offensive weapons that can cause some problems to the Lakers defense as well. Therefore, I will take both the Lakers and the over on this contest tonight, as I see good value on both plays in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821/822 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 822 Los Angeles Lakers (-10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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