Friday, January 13, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/12: Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 509 Orlando Magic @ 510 Golden State Warriors

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: 194 points
On their game at Portland, Orlando used their precise ball movement to generate a series of open looks beyond the 3pts line, torching the league's best 3pts defense with 16-27 (59,3%) 3pts! "I thought our ball movement was the best it has been early in the year," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. "Our energy and ball movement was outstanding."

The inside-out passing from Howard was the key. In fact, this was the 3rd time in the last 4 games that Orlando dished 24 or more assists! For today, the formula will be the same: inside out game with Howard and as the Magic's outside shooting is red shot right now, it won't be a simple back to back game that will stop them!

For tonight, Golden State has Brown out for tonight (who is an excellent 1*1 defender!) and Biedrins probable, after recovering from an ankle injury. Basically, Golden State has nobody to go 1*1 vs Howard and so, Orlando will have a huge edge down low, as the Warriors are also just the #21 best defense in the league in post up plays! Against Miami in their last game, Golden State played small ball with Nate, Ellis, Rush/Udoh, Wright and Lee in the center position, with the same of that game being super fast (95)!

I expect Golden State to push up the pace tonight, as they have no chance against Howard on a slow paced game and they can do it, as with their quick guards, they will be able to explore the slow footed perimeter of Orlando. Even though the Warriors will struggle to score in the paint, they should be okay, considering they only try 27% of their shots at the rim anyway! With Orlando being red hot, I expect them to have another great offensive game, while the Warriors should be able to stay in the game by exploring the quickness of their backcourt, while pushing up the pace at the same time. Therefore, I came up with a projection of 194 points for this contest, high enough for me to take the over in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

No comments:

Post a Comment