NBA Premium Play 01/10: Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 519 Phoenix Suns @ 520 Los Angeles Lakers

***TOP PLAY***

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: 198 points
On good spots, Phoenix can still be a somewhat similar version to what they were in the recent past. On their last game, two days ago, against Milwaukee, they had a very good ball movement with 30 assists, with little volume on the inside, but they had legs to hit the long shots, as they hit 10-22 FG from 3pts and 14-25 FG from 16-23 feet! Steve Nash and Channing Frye are now looking better physically, while Marcin Gortat is now recovered form his thumb injury! About Grant Hill, head coach Alvin Gentry said the following: “He was ecstatic that he made the corner three last night,” Gentry said of Hill’s first three-pointer of the season. “On some of his drives and some of his finishes, he’s just not quite there yet. Defensively, I think he’s done a great job. The job he’s done on Monta Ellis, you go back, the job he did on Dirk (Nowitzki) … Stephen Jackson is a guy that has given us a ton of trouble over the years. I think we did a good job.”

Of course that facing Milwaukee on a bad spot helped the Suns to play so well, but the truth is that this was the second game in a row where Phoenix was able to have a solid offensive game on the perimeter! The Suns will have a curious matchup on this game against the Lakers, because the big size of the team from LA will be almost irrelevant for the Suns offense. Phoenix is trying almost 52% of their shots from 16 feet or more, so the question is to know if they will make those long shots or not. And I think they will! We aren't talking about a back to back spot and the Suns are coming from two games where they had 1 day off to rest and they are on the same spot for this game. On their last two games, they shot a combined of 24-47 (51%) FG from 16-23 feet and 17-42 (40%) from 3pts! The Lakers have been defending 3pts shots very well, but the truth is that they have been facing bad 3pts shooting teams (DEN x2 #26 27,6% 3pts, POR #21 30,5% 3pts, GSW #15 33,1% 3pts and MEM #30 20,0% 3pts). Of course, Phoenix is just #20 with 31,1% and the books are counting on this very same #20 version of the Suns, but we have on these last two games that they are back as a great outside shooting team!

On the other side, we have the Lakers size advantage to torch Phoenix's defense. The Suns have actually some decent defensive numbers so far, but let's not forget that they face NOH x2 or POR and MEM in super bad physical spots which resulted in offensive no shows from those teams! So, we are ahead an overrated defense! Of course Phoenix will try some zone defense against the Lakers offense, but Kobe Bryant has been very active offensively and he will easily penetrate into the basket! The Lakers are coming from a sloppy offensive game against Memphis with 27 turnovers, but the Grizzlies are currently the best defensive ball handler pressuring team of the league, together with Denver. The Suns perimeter defense simply doesn't have the same "motor" that Memphis has and therefore, the Lakers will eventually punish the Suns poor defense big time on this game.

Therefore, looking at all these facts that I've stated, I came up with a projected line much higher than the current line, which is completely ridiculous, looking at how both teams are playing right now and the matchup between the Lakers and the Suns. So, I will be taking the over in here on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 188,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker