NBA - 507 Los Angeles Lakers @ 508 Portland Trailblazers
Projected line: 190 Points | PK line
Projected line: 190 Points | PK line
This is surely a big game and historically the Lakers have heavily struggle to win in the Rose Garden over the years. The complete turnaround of Portland this season is clearly giving some results pretty quickly, as it shows their great win on the road against Oklahoma City on their last game. Portland's offense is now mostly based on off rebounds and transition plays and the fact is that the Lakers are allowing 16.6 fast break points per game, due to their slow footed perimeter. However, I believe this change in the playing style of the Blazers will actually benefit the Lakers, besides the fact that the team from LA is now playing at a decent level, especially since Andrew Bynum came back from his suspension. Even though the Lakers perimeter is old and a bit slow, the truth is that their defense at this area of the court has been performing well by allowing 33% FG from 16-23 feet and 30% from 3pts! Portland has been doing well on post up plays (8th in the league) with LaMarcus Aldridge, while at the same time they are doing very well on spot-up plays (4th), they are the best team in the NBA in P&R roll man plays and they are also the 2nd best on cuts! The Lakers defense may have some problems, but the team from LA offers an overall bad matchup to Portland. The Lakers have been formidable on the boards with Bynum, so Portland should have problems tonight in scoring via offensive rebounding on second chance points.
However, I don't believe that the good performance of Portland's offense this season is going to be enough to compensate the fact that on the other side, the Lakers have Andrew Bynum playing at a phenomenal level! The Lakers had an excellent inside out game against the Rockets and even though Portland has a good scrambling defense, Bynum is simply at a superb level right now and the lack of depth on Portland's frontcourt may force the Blazers in using their small ball! In the only loss Portland has had so far this season (vs LAC), Portland put so much attention on Blake Griffin that it worked individually, as Griffin tried just 11 FG, converting 6 of them on a 20 points effort. But to stop Griffin, they had to give space in the perimeter and CP3, Butler and Mo Williams took advantage of that. The same thing will happen tonight, as LAL already showed against HOU that their inside out is working well.
Portland is now playing at a higher pace and considering the Lakers edge on the frontcourt, obviously Nate McMillan won't change his team's gameplan and make his Blazers return to play halfcourt basketball. That's not happening for sure. As the Lakers defense has been doing quite well in defending off screens and off rebounds, together with the dominance they will have in the frontcourt with Bynum is superb form, I see value on the Lakers and I'll take them tonight. In terms of the totals line, 187 points would be an acceptable line if the game was played last season when Portland was playing on a slower pace, but considering their new playing style, we have some value on the over and I'm also taking it in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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