NBA - 717 Milwaukee Bucks @ 718 Denver Nuggets
Projected line: 193 points
This is a back to back to back spot for Denver and the truth is that some of their starters played heavy minutes in the first two nights, even though they generally use a 9-players rotation. In the first game, Nene, Gallinari, Lawson and Miller all played more than 31 minutes, while in the second game, Gallinari played 37 minutes, Affalo 31 minutes, Lawson 37 minutes and Harrington 35 minutes. The Nuggets continue to be quite aggressive in both ends of the floor, but their problem continues to be the high amount of 3pts shots that they keep unsuccessfully trying. Even yesterday, they shot 19-26 FG at the rim, but just 2-18 on 3pts shots!
On the other side, Milwaukee is coming rested for this game and they are the only team who has just played three games in the league so far! They are 2-1 right now, but their first three games were against lowly teams without a big rotation like Denver has. The Bucks committed few turnovers, but they looked poor on defensive rebounding! To counter Denver's great transition plays (1,24 PPP & 21,4% volume!), Milwaukee has some solutions, as they have been defending really well with few turnovers and a defense that only allows 0.87 PPP on transition plays!
Like any team coached by Scott Skiles, the Bucks are a great defensive team and I expect them to be able to control Denver's offense on such a tough spot for them. Considering Milwaukee's natural problems on offense as well, I will be taking the under in here, as I see value on it looking at the current line.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 197,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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