NBA Free Premium Play 01/06: Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics

Indiana  at Boston

NBA - 809 Indiana Pacers @ 810 Boston Celtics Projected line: Boston by 3 points Indiana is coming from a road game where they were clearly humiliated at Miami and now, they will be looking to bounce back on another road game, this time in Boston. The truth is that the Pacers couldn't hang in the style that Miami put on the game by attacking the rim on a fast pace. That was clearly a bad matchup for Indiana and they weren't clearly ready to be competitive on that game with Miami playing like that. However, Boston offers a completely different matchup and Indiana should be much more competitive tonight than on their last game. Boston's offense has been quite good at a slow pace, especially on three specific categories: spot ups (22,4% volume, #10 in the league), transitions (13,9% volume, #2 in the league) and P&R plays (18.2% volume, #8 in the league)! However, Indiana's defense is the best defense on the NBA in stopping P&R plays, they are the 9th best on transition plays and average on defending spot-ups, so it seems clear that Indiana's defense has the tools to stop Boston's offense tonight, especially because Boston is coming from games which clearly lack intensiveness (easy matches vs DET, WAS, WAS and NJN) and they will struggle with the hustle and effort of the Pacers tonight. Looking at the shot locs, Boston won't have an easy task, as they are shooting 64% FG from the rim, while Indiana is just allowing 61% FG from this area of the court. The Celtics are also shooting 45% FG from 16-23 feet and 47% 3pts, which are great numbers, however Indiana's perimeter defense is also quite good by allowing respectively 29% and 33% FG from these two areas of the court. On the other side, Indiana's offense will have a little edge on transition plays and off boards tonight! The main reason for that is that Boston has been a complete disaster on these two categories this season by being the 2nd worst team in the league in defending transition plays (1.33 PPP allowed!), while on off boards, they are even the worst team in the league by allowing 1.52 PPP! Last year, Boston won the series by 3-1, but they were just able to grab 43, 40, 45.6 and 42.4% of the boards! Now with Indiana surely keeping this edge on the boards and being able to stop Boston's offense so well, while having an edge on transition plays, I expect Indiana to make this game highly competitive and perhaps even win it outright! That's why I'll be taking the Pacers tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Indiana Pacers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker