NBA Premium Plays 03/13

NBA - 691 Houston Rockets @ 692 Chicago Bulls

Play #1

My fair line for this contest is 196 points and due to some early line movement, we have now the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ the Over.

The Bulls offense is far from being elite but they are playing quite well for some time. D.J. Augustin has been a nice surprise for them w/ his nice outside shooting ability, but the key factor has been J. Noah. His passing ability on the high post is tremendous as he reads perfectly well the game. This is where I think that the Bulls will have some offensive edge over the Rockets IMO. HOU’s defense can be lazy especially off the ball (Harden’s struggles are well documented), and I expect the Bulls to explore this HOU’s defensive weakness.

On the other side, CHI’s defense is having some problems to stop opposing quick guards so far in the season. Tony Parker really abused them in the last game and the Rockets have in Harden and Lin, two bad individual matchups for them. Howard is coming from a tough and bad game @OKC, and he will be fired up for tonight. Noah is a great defensive player but his main strength is more related into being a phenomenal “help defender”. With Howard on the court, he simply can’t provide such help and the Rockets will explore Boozer’s awful overall defense.

With both teams having some key offensive edges to explore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 691/692 Over 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 693 Milwaukee Bucks @ 694 Atlanta Hawks

Play #2

ATL Def. Rtg since the All star break = awful 118.6! They were completely shorthanded on the frontcourt and to makes things even worse, they had a tough road trip in which they faced some of the most potent offensive teams in the league like PHX, POR, GSW or LAC.

Fortunately, Pero Antic and Paul Millsap returned to action in L2 games and now ATL can now play a bit better on the defensive end. They had 2 days off to rest and prepare this contest while the Bucks offense is nowhere near the level of the ATL’s competition as of late.

ATL has been abused on the boards and because they had to pack the paint in order to protect the rim, they are allowing 42.1% 3pts in L10 games -2nd worst mark in the league! The good news is that MIL is struggling pretty badly from the perimeter lately - L5 games they are shooting 28-95 from 3pts - 29.5%! Also, MIL’s center is Zaza Pachulia and so, ATL’s interior defense can protect the rim with some ease as well!

On the other end, MIL’s head coach Larry Drew will play @ATL for the first time this season and obviously, he has some motivation on his mind. I expect MIL to play w/ tight rotation tonight while he won’t allow his players to be lazy on the defensive end!

I would understand these 210-points if the Hawks were still shorthanded on the frontcourt and the Bucks had no motivation going on for this contest. This isn’t the case for tonight, and so, I’m taking the Under in here as we are dealing w/ an inflated line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 693/694 Under 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 695 Los Angeles Lakers @ 696 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #3

This past Sunday I went w/ OKC-12 against the Lakers and the final outcome was a huge surprise as the Lakers not only covered the spread, but they also won straight up the game. Obviously, OKC wants to avenge that loss, they are a proud team and @ National Tv stage, they will try to crush the Lakers in the same way the Clippers did a week ago.

 Note nr. 1: That Sunday game had a super fast pace factor = 103.5! This helps to explain why the game ended w/ 224 points even though OKC has shot just 42.0% and LAL 46.9% from the field!

Russell Westbrook played completely out of control! He knew that no one in the Lakers roster could stop him in transition and forced way too many… the result was his awful stats line = 7-23 FG + 8 TO’s! OKC went just 6-16 in transition for a ridiculous 0.76 PPP!

Finally, OKC had two miserable offensive quarters and still scored 110 points…

OKC 2nd quarter = 9-27 FG 33.3%
OKC 3rd quarter = 7-21 FG 33.3%

For tonight, I expect OKC to put +30 points in every quarter because it is way too easy to score against this Lakers defense.

On the other side, the Lakers are a tough matchup for this OKC’s defense that allows way too many wide open shots on the outside.

My fair line for this contest is 230 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 695/696 Over 227 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker