NBA Premium Card 03/15

NBA - 503 Brooklyn Nets @ 504 Washington Wizards

Play #1 & #2

This is a tough spot for the Wizards… last night they had a tough battle vs. ORL, the game went to OT and all WAS’s starters logged at least 41 minutes!

I had a play w/ ORL in that game because the Wizards without Nene are basically a jump shooting with little presence down low. In 53 minutes of action, the Wizards scored only 32 points in the paint! Obviously, they had some good offensive perimeter numbers like shooting 10-23 from 3pts, but they have faced ORL’s poor perimeter D as well.

BKN’s defense has been great as of late especially on the perimeter. They don’t have the proper size to protect the rim and are constantly crushed on the boards. However they are aggressive vs. ball handlers, creating an absurd number of TO’s and this Wizards’ team fits perfectly well on what they do defensively.

WAS’ lack of inside scoring tonight will be the X factor! BKN is allowing just 33.8% from 3pts in L10 games – ranked #5 in the league during this stretch! I expect BKN’s defense to control the perimeter tonight vs. a tired WAS team.

However, the same thing can be said on the other end! Like WAS, the Nets don’t have any considerable inside game – they are scoring just 37 pts in the paint in L8 games! They also attempts a ton of outside jumpers and the Wizards’ are actually allowing just 31.8% 3pts in L10 games – ranked #4 in the league!

I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game. This BKN-3 line would be fair if both teams were in similar physical spots but this is not the case in here and so, I think that the Nets will take advantage of it.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Brooklyn Nets (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 505 Denver Nuggets @ 506 Atlanta Hawks

Play #3

DEN’s win last night @MIA was a big surprise for me because the Heat was supposed to be a tough matchup for them.

This is a tough physical spot for them but really, it was their bench that helped the Nuggets to upset the Heat, so we are dealing w/ a confident team that have a 10 –players rotation – a great factor in b2b games.

ATL is playing better now that they have Antic & Millsap back. They are 2-0 in L2 games but even in those 2 wins, the Hawks were completely outrebounded and they had real problems in protecting the rim. This can be problematic against a team like the Nuggets…

I understand that the Hawks will create some problems on the perimeter vs. poor DEN defense but this will be compensated by the fact that the Nuggets will dominate the boards and score +50 pts in the paint. IMO we should be dealing w/ the Hawks being favored by 3 points, and so, I’m taking the Nuggets tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Denver Nuggets (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 507 Indiana Pacers @ 508 Detroit Pistons

Play #4

The Pacers had 2 nice spots to perform offensively vs. BOS and last night @PHI, and even though they had +50% FG in both games, they struggled a bit w/ TO’s & outside shooting. It was weird that IND’s coach Vogel didn’t rotate his team vs. PHI last night… Stephenson played 40min, Hill 39min, P. George 36 min and West 33 min. This can be problematic for tonight because the Pacers for some reason struggled in b2b games this season.

On the other end, the Pistons are coming from another loss @TOR. Their lack of discipline in both ends of the floor is “remarkable”. B. Jennings had a rare big game vs. TOR w/ 10-15 FG but he “forgot” to involve his teammates and the Pistons ended the game w/ just 15 assists! A team like the Pacers w/ a good interior defense will slow down DET offense w/ some ease.

With the Pacers being involved in a tough physical spot and struggling a bit to hit outside shots, I expect DET’s huge frontcourt to slow down IND’s frontline and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 511 Sacramento Kings @ 512 Chicago Bulls

Play #5

I had the Over in CHI’s last game vs. HOU and they really crushed the Rockets… CHI’s offense was simply terrific w/ 35 assists! Actually, they had a remarkable 81% assist/rate% (35 of 46 FGM’s were assisted) and everything went well for them.

Noah keeps punishing the opposing teams that struggle especially defending off the ball and honestly, I don’t think that the Kings’ defense have the proper discipline to slow down CHI’s offense. CHI was humiliated @SAC early on the season:

“The Kings limited the Bulls to just 28.2 percent shooting overall, the lowest for a Sacramento opponent since the team moved there in 1985-86.”

On the other side, I expect the Kings to push the pace @ every chance while Isaiah Thomas & D. Cousins are a tough individual matchup for the Bulls defense. Thomas’ speed will be a tough matchup for the slow footed Hinrich & Augustin.

The Bulls have been “Under” machine so far in this season and this type of games vs. fast paced & poor defensive teams are a good opportunity for us w/ Over’s, and I’m just taking advantage of it!  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada