NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 San Antonio Spurs
Play #1
The Spurs might have some revenge in their minds for this contest after losing the first H2H game @MIA in January and obviously losing @ NBA Finals from last season, but IMO the real X factor will be related w/ MIA defense vs. SAS offense.
I’ve watched this afternoon SAS’s last game @CLE and it was really unbelievable the way the Spurs’ shared the ball – they had a total of 39 assists w/ every single player having at least one assist!
SAS’s starting lineup is more “defensive” oriented but once Popovich started doing his rotations, the Spurs 2nd unit completely dominated the game. They played fast and they played w/ a remarkable offensive flow. This will be a real problem for the Heat defense that is far from being an elite defensive team especially in the “weak side”. It’s a fact that MIA’s defense has improved since the All Star Break but they did have a “favorable” schedule: OKC was off sync w/ Westbrook back in the lineup; CHI doesn’t have a strong perimeter offense; NYK had Felton and Prigioni in the backcourt; ORL & CHA are ranked #24 and #17 in 3pts% this season. Only HOU is a dangerous perimeter offensive team and they were decent w/ 8-23 3pts against MIA.
SAS will explore MIA’s late defensive rotations to torch them from the outside…we are talking about a Spurs’ team that is averaging 32 assists per game in L4 games!
On the other end, LeBron James is just amazing but there is a concerning trend about the Heat lately: unlike the Spurs, MIA’s ball movement has been more stagnant as James is “dominating” more the ball – MIA’s L4 game logs assists = 18, 20, 18 and 19 assists!
In the first H2H between these two teams, MIA crushed the Spurs using some sharp ball movement to hit 8-19 3pts & dishing 28 assists! However, note that Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter didn't play for San Antonio because of injuries.
Now that SAS have their best defensive perimeter players back, they can now put more focus in stopping LeBron James…
We have the “revenge” spot working favorably for us in here as well, so I really think that SAS will win this contest as their “team concept” unit will prevail over MIA’s individual prowerness.
I’ve watched this afternoon SAS’s last game @CLE and it was really unbelievable the way the Spurs’ shared the ball – they had a total of 39 assists w/ every single player having at least one assist!
SAS’s starting lineup is more “defensive” oriented but once Popovich started doing his rotations, the Spurs 2nd unit completely dominated the game. They played fast and they played w/ a remarkable offensive flow. This will be a real problem for the Heat defense that is far from being an elite defensive team especially in the “weak side”. It’s a fact that MIA’s defense has improved since the All Star Break but they did have a “favorable” schedule: OKC was off sync w/ Westbrook back in the lineup; CHI doesn’t have a strong perimeter offense; NYK had Felton and Prigioni in the backcourt; ORL & CHA are ranked #24 and #17 in 3pts% this season. Only HOU is a dangerous perimeter offensive team and they were decent w/ 8-23 3pts against MIA.
SAS will explore MIA’s late defensive rotations to torch them from the outside…we are talking about a Spurs’ team that is averaging 32 assists per game in L4 games!
On the other end, LeBron James is just amazing but there is a concerning trend about the Heat lately: unlike the Spurs, MIA’s ball movement has been more stagnant as James is “dominating” more the ball – MIA’s L4 game logs assists = 18, 20, 18 and 19 assists!
In the first H2H between these two teams, MIA crushed the Spurs using some sharp ball movement to hit 8-19 3pts & dishing 28 assists! However, note that Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter didn't play for San Antonio because of injuries.
Now that SAS have their best defensive perimeter players back, they can now put more focus in stopping LeBron James…
We have the “revenge” spot working favorably for us in here as well, so I really think that SAS will win this contest as their “team concept” unit will prevail over MIA’s individual prowerness.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 San Antonio Spurs (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 503 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 504 Phoenix Suns
Play #2
Yep, OKC is back! After losing three straight games, OKC has won their last 3 games and they will face the Suns @ perfect time.
We should forget OKC’s last game vs. PHI because, well…it was against PHI.
In the 2 previous contests against CHA & MEM, OKC had some “natural” problems to stop opposing centers as rookie Adams is still a work in progress. Marc Gasol had 7-10 FG while Al Jefferson torched OKC for 10-16 FG & 25 points.
However, I was impressed w/ OKC’s defensive performance @ perimeter especially against PG’s – Conley finished the game w/ 1-10 FG while Kemba Walker was held to 3-13 FG.
This is extremely important for tonight because:
1) PHX really don’t have any capable post player…actually their starting center Miles Plumlee is OUT for tonight and so, Alex Len will start for PHX and we are dealing w/ an extremely “raw” offensive player
2) PHX’s best player Goran Dragic plays @PG, so this good recent trend of OKC vs. PG’s is a good sign for tonight.
In order to slow down PHX’s offense, teams should be ready to run back and prevent PHX to score in transition and OKC’s knows this:
“When we sprint back, we have to match up to their 3-point shooters,” Brooks said. “If you sprint back to the lane, you’re going to be 20 feet from their shooters. You have to sprint back with the purpose of stopping them from taking 3s. We definitely have to stop the ball because Goran (Dragic) is one of the best at attacking it and finding gaps. He’s an aggressive player and he’s having a great year.”
On the other end, PHX will be forced to play small ball because they don’t have the proper personnel to play “big”, so OKC can play Durant @PF. After some games where OKC offense looked off sync, OKC is now back in track…they scored 113 points vs. MEM & 116 points vs. CHA – 2 decent defensive teams!
PHX defensive ratings in L6 games = awful 117.6! In that stretch, they are allowing 49 points in the paint & 16.8 fast break points per games!
While OKC is ready to play in another level, PHX is primed to have a natural letdown for the near future unless E. Bledsoe returns @ high level.
We should forget OKC’s last game vs. PHI because, well…it was against PHI.
In the 2 previous contests against CHA & MEM, OKC had some “natural” problems to stop opposing centers as rookie Adams is still a work in progress. Marc Gasol had 7-10 FG while Al Jefferson torched OKC for 10-16 FG & 25 points.
However, I was impressed w/ OKC’s defensive performance @ perimeter especially against PG’s – Conley finished the game w/ 1-10 FG while Kemba Walker was held to 3-13 FG.
This is extremely important for tonight because:
1) PHX really don’t have any capable post player…actually their starting center Miles Plumlee is OUT for tonight and so, Alex Len will start for PHX and we are dealing w/ an extremely “raw” offensive player
2) PHX’s best player Goran Dragic plays @PG, so this good recent trend of OKC vs. PG’s is a good sign for tonight.
In order to slow down PHX’s offense, teams should be ready to run back and prevent PHX to score in transition and OKC’s knows this:
“When we sprint back, we have to match up to their 3-point shooters,” Brooks said. “If you sprint back to the lane, you’re going to be 20 feet from their shooters. You have to sprint back with the purpose of stopping them from taking 3s. We definitely have to stop the ball because Goran (Dragic) is one of the best at attacking it and finding gaps. He’s an aggressive player and he’s having a great year.”
On the other end, PHX will be forced to play small ball because they don’t have the proper personnel to play “big”, so OKC can play Durant @PF. After some games where OKC offense looked off sync, OKC is now back in track…they scored 113 points vs. MEM & 116 points vs. CHA – 2 decent defensive teams!
PHX defensive ratings in L6 games = awful 117.6! In that stretch, they are allowing 49 points in the paint & 16.8 fast break points per games!
While OKC is ready to play in another level, PHX is primed to have a natural letdown for the near future unless E. Bledsoe returns @ high level.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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