NBA Premium Card 03/07

NBA - 807 Utah Jazz @ 808 New York Knicks

Play #2

In this contest we have two awful perimeter defensive teams going against each other…

UTA defense is ranked #21 vs. P&R ball handler defense & #27 vs. spot up defense! They are coming from a game in which they allowed WAS to shoot 70% at the paint for 56 pts in the paint…NYK offense is capable of some great offensive performances when facing poor perimeter defensive teams and definitely, the Jazz are one of those teams.

However, I also expect UTA offense to have some success against the Knicks. UTA’s offense badly needs their PNR game to be decent w/ their guards Burke, Hayward and Burks….fortunately for them, they will face the worst PNR BH defense in the league in the Knicks. NYK is now starting w/ Felton, JR Smith, Melo, Amare & Chandler and certainly, we can’t much defensive pressure from this lineup. My fair line for this contest is 200 points, and so, I think that we have some edge w/ the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 815 Portland Trail Blazers @ 816 Dallas Mavericks

Play #3

The Mavericks are a tough matchup for the Blazers and ultimately, the fact that they will play tonight at home against is the key factor IMO as my fair line for this contest is DAL -5/-6.

DAL’ offense is predicated to run multiple PNR’s w/ their guards and use Dirk Nowitzi in the high post. Well, POR defense is ranked #24 defending P&R Ball Handler Plays & ranked #29 in post up defense.

DAL is now 0-3 in L3 games so there is a sense of urgency for them tonight while POR is feeling maybe too much confident after their huge blowout win vs. struggling ATL.

The key factor for me is related w/ LaMarcus Aldridge… in the 2nd H2H game between these two teams, POR went to DAL and killed them w/ 127-111 mostly because LMA was unstoppable w/ 11-18 FG & 8-9 for 30 points! However, he is yet to be @100% in form after returning from an injury. He went 1-13 FG against the Hawks in the last game!!! POR won’t win a shootout against DAL without LMA @100% and I think this is going to be the case tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 Dallas Mavericks (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 819 Indiana Pacers @ 820 Houston Rockets

Play #4

I’ve watched this afternoon the last game of the Pacers @CHA and it was really a disaster. IND didn’t want to battle vs. CHA since the start… Offensively, they couldn’t even make their usual entry passes and almost all of their shots were perimeter ones… on the other end, Big Al simply crushed Roy Hibbert in every single play, because IND don’t send any double team, Big Al dominated the game. There is a key stat that says it all about the game: at the end of the first quarter, CHA had 16 points in the paint vs. ZERO from IND!

IND is not playing well as of late…this is going to be their 5th game in 7days and somehow, HOU would represent a similar tough matchup for IND. If D. Howard dominates Hibbert (who looks to me lacking confidence right now) down low, HOU’s offense will explode offensively.

Meanwhile, IND’s offense is once again without any confidence and rhythm w/ their perimeter shooting – they have hit 10 three pointers, but most of those 3pts’ came @ garbage time!

W/ Howard & Asik protecting the rim and w/ IND struggling to hit outside shots, I really expect HOU to be the clear winner in this contest. Somehow, this game reminds me the game SAS vs. MIA from last night and therefore, I’m taking the Rockets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 820 Houston Rockets (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes