NBA Premium Card 03/16

NBA - 877 Boston Celtics @ 878 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #4

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

In my opinion, this is a classic game between two lowly teams where there won’t be much defensive aggressiveness and so, I expect this contest to be a shootout.

The Celtics struggled vs. PHX in the last game especially because Rajon Rondo didn’t have a particular good game. Not only he struggled shooting the ball w/ 4-15 FG but he also failed to assists his teammates w/ just 5 assists. PHX’s speed on the backcourt w/ Dragic and Bledsoe was a tough matchup for Rond and with the team once again being miserable from the outside (3-21 3pts), it’s easy to understand why the Celtics scored only 80 points in that game.

For this contest, the Celtics will face Pelicans in a more favorable matchup for them. Roberts and Gordon simply don’t have the same speed of PHX’s guards and so, we can expect a bounce back game from Rondo. The Pelicans are playing now more minutes w/ Davis @ center and Evans on the court in a 3-guards lineup. Well… as expected, the Pelicans defense have been awful w/ this kind of rotation... the good news is that they are more potent on the offensive end.

A. Davis as usual will dominate on the offensive end vs. BOS’s frontcourt and the Pelicans w/ Roberts, Gordon & Evans are a decent offensive team in transition + attacking the rim – something that the undersized BOS’s frontcourt is far from being an elite defensive team.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 877/878 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 881 Utah Jazz @ 882 San Antonio Spurs

Play #5

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

The write up for this BIG play is actually quite short and simple…

There is no way the Jazz would be able to slow down the Spurs’ offensive machine! SAS’s Off. Rtg. in L9 games = amazing 117.3! They are sharing the ball w/ 29.4 assists per game during that stretch and there is a terrific continuity and fluidity between their first and second unit.

The Spurs are playing almost @ run and gun style right now as they want to “wear down” their opponents.

In this fast paced style, the Jazz can score some points because they have a mobile starting lineup. I had the Under in their last game vs. LAC because I expected the Jazz to struggle a bit vs. the size of Griffin & Jordan. Tonight will be different because the Spurs play more small ball when compared to LAC’s.

Also, SAS will score so easily in here that they will relax a bit IMO on the defensive end. We should be dealing w/ a totals line of +206 points and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 881/882 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 885 Golden State Warriors @ 886 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #6 & #7

This is a game where LaMarcus Aldridge will really be missed by the Blazers in my opinion…

POR was able to win @NO without LMA, but GSW is a completely different animal and ultimately, this will prevail in here. I expect POR to play “small ball” w/ lineups plenty of guards. Note that against the Pelicans, 42% of POR’s shots were from behind the line! GSW is allowing just 34.3% from 3pts in L10 games, but I understand that POR w/ playing at home will get their points via FT’s, offensive rebounds & three pointers.

However, GSW can match their outside shooting but they will crush POR’s undersized frontcourt especially w/ David Lee down low. GSW is coming from b2b losses vs. LAC & CLE. I’ve watched their game vs. CLE, and GSW got “lazy” after building a huge early lead and they were punished by that. Still, when they were "sharp", GSW's offensive flow was really great.

I expect this contest to be a pure run and gun game in which the Warriors have more weapons on the frontcourt and this will be X factor IMO.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 885 Golden State Warriors (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 885/886 Over 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 887 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 888 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #8

The matchup between these two teams dictates a high scoring game in my opinion…

LAC is shorthanded on the backcourt and it will be tough for CP3 & D. Collison to prevent both Irving and Waiters from driving to the basket. Also, Spencer Hawes is playing great offensively for the Cavs as his long range shooting is really a "plus" for the team. This bodes well for them, because he will match w/ DeAndre Jordan and Jordan really struggles vs. good outside shooting centers!

However, I don’t think that the Cavaliers will slow down the Clippers offense, especially with them playing at home. As good as Spencer Hawes has been offensively, he will be overpowered tonight by LAC’s frontcourt. The same thing can be said about Irving and Waiters vs. Chris Paul and therefore, we are dealing w/ a game where multiple mismatches will happen on the offensive end.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 887/888 Over 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 871 Phoenix Suns @ 872 Toronto Raptors

Play #1

NOTE: *EARLY GAME* no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 871/872 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 873 Charlotte Bobcats @ 874 Milwaukee Bucks

Play #2

NOTE: *EARLY GAME* no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 873 Charlotte Bobcats (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 875 Houston Rockets @ 876 Miami Heat

Play #3

NOTE: *EARLY GAME* no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 875/876 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes