NBA Premium Card 03/02

NBA - 807 Utah Jazz @ 808 Indiana Pacers

Play #3

UTA was coming from 2 nice wins vs. BOS & shorthanded PHX where their offense looked good in those games, but they got completely shut down by the Cavaliers in their last game on the road by scoring just 79 points.

The most incredible fact was that UTA scored 79 points despite hitting 14-29 behind the line – yes, they’ve scored 14 three pointers and still scored 79 total points! This tell us that UTA just couldn’t score near the basket – they scored only 22 points in the paint, something bizarre considering that CLE played w/ Hawes, Thompson & Zeller in the frontcourt.

Well, if UTA struggled to score near the basket against the Cavaliers, what can we expect for them tonight against the best interior defense in the league!?!

IND won last night @BOS so they will play today in consecutive days - a spot in which the Pacers are having some problems in this season. IND frontcourt has been playing better recently but the Jazz has now D. Favors available and so, he is a considerable upgrade defensively over E. Kanter.

UTA plays a slow paced – half court style and in the halfcourt, I really don’t think they will be able to produce offensively against the best defensive team in the league. The good news is that they will face a Pacers’ team mired in a tough physical spot, so IMO this won’t be a “fun game” to watch.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Under 189.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 809 Dallas Mavericks @ 810 San Antonio Spurs

Play #4

I had a big play w/ Under in SAS vs. DET as I expected the Spurs to finally have a decent defensive performance now that w/ Leonard & Green back, they have the proper personnel on the wings to be an elite defensive team.

That didn’t happen as SAS allowed 110 points in that game, but in the last game against the Bobcats and after allowing 25 points in the first half, SAS defense was just incredible in the next 3 quarters by allowing 20, 20 and 17 points!

What really impressed me was the way SAS defense completely shutdown CHA’s P&R offense: CHA had 0-7 FG in P&R Ball Handler Plays & 1-14 FG in P&R Roll Man Plays. This is a great sign for today because the Mavericks are ranked #1 in the league in volume% of plays via PNR’s. Obviously, DAL offense is more talented than CHA but this is a sign I just can’t ignore.

On the other end, it looks like Tony Parker will return tonight and it is pretty normal that the Spurs could struggle a bit offensively especially early on.

The Spurs are 2-0 vs. DAL in this season mainly due to the dominance of Tim Duncan & Tony Parker. In those 2 games, Duncan averaged 18.5 points & 13.0 rebounds. His direct opponent in both games was… Dejuan Blair! Meanwhile Tony Parker averaged 24 points while the Mavericks didn’t have any player on their roster who could hang around w/ Parker.

For this contest, DAL is now playing w/ Dalembert + Wright @ center position – a huge defensive upgrade over Blair while D. Harris’ speed could be important on the defensive end vs. Tony Parker.

W/ the Spurs more focused defensively and w/ DAL having more defensive weapons to slow down SAS’s offense, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 811 Charlotte Bobcats @ 812 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #5

OKC’s defense has been subpar in L4 games w/ Def. Rtg. of 112.7, 123.8, 119.3 and 118.8! However I think that this is a great spot for them to enjoy a nice defensive performance against the Bobcats.

Note that OKC allowed just 42 points in the first half vs. MEM in the last game but MEM’s 2nd unit was awesome in the second half while MEM scored 65 points. The key factor IMO was the fact that Conley struggled so badly against OKC’s perimeter defense – he had just 1-10 FG & 5 TO’s.

This is a good sign for today because if OKC defense can “slow down” Kemba Walker, then CHA’s offense will be in huge trouble to score some points. OKC’s length on the perimeter will be a tough matchup for Al Jefferson even though I expect him to be decent vs. rookie Adams. The problem of CHA is related w/ their perimeter…

On the other end, CHA’s defense is really underrated…. In L5 games they have a phenomenal 99.2 Def. Rtg! Their rim protection & transition defense has been great and this can be important in this contest vs. OKC’s explosive offense.

My fair line for this is 200/202 points and therefore, I think we have some nice edge w/ Under IMO.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Under 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 813 Atlanta Hawks @ 814 Phoenix Suns

Play #6

Both teams will play small ball, both teams will play @ frenetic pace and both teams are struggling to defend right now… the correlation of these 3 factors IMO will make this contest a super high scoring game.

Due to all the injuries, ATL is playing w/ D. Carroll @PF & Elton Brand @center position – this says it all about their inability to defend near the basket! Their perimeter defense is even worst! When one team allows Rondo & Bayless to hit 20-35 FG while scoring 51 points, then you know that they are really struggling defensively…

According to my numbers, ATL L10 games transition defense = allowing 1.20 PPP!!! Well, PHX has G. Dragic & G. Green on the backcourt and are ranked #1 in fast break points per game w/ 19.0 FB/pts per game…

On the other end, ATL’s good ball movement is helping them to generate good looking outside shots. Despite playing shorthanded, ATL is hitting 42.6% 3pts in L10 games - #2 mark in the league! PHX’s PNR defense has been subpar (ranked #24) and this is an area where ATL’s offense has been pretty sharp lately w/ their heavy-guard rotation.

We are dealing w/ a pure run and gun contest where both offenses will have key edges, therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813/814 Over 217 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 803 Golden State Warriors @ 804 Toronto Raptors

Play #1 & #2

GSW is coming from a pure offensive demolition over the Knicks in the last game by scoring 126 points and having Off. Rtg. = 120.8! However, let’s not forget that they were facing the… Knicks – ranked #27 in defending 3pts% (ranked #29 in L10 games); ranked #30 defending P&R ball handler plays & ranked #29 defending transition plays. Obviously, GSW torched NYK defense in all these 3 areas for an easy win.

Hardly, this will happen today against the Raptors because we are dealing w/ a TOR defense that is allowing 32.7% 3pts in L10 games (ranked #7 in the league) and is ranked #4 defending P&R Ball Handler Plays. Facing R. Felton is way different than facing K. Lowry and I expect GSW to have a natural offensive letdown in this contest.

The good news for GSW is that their defense is playing @ extreme high level and I expect them to be even better against TOR today.

First of all, note that there are several Raptors’ players banged up right now: Amir Johnson is still dealing w/ a bad ankle while K. Lawry & T. Ross sprained their ankles in the last game vs. WAS as well…

TOR offense is PNR heavy while they are mostly a jump shooting team like GSW… Well, GSW is allowing just 32.5% 3pts in L10 games - #4 best mark in the league while their PNR has clearly improved now that they are healthy.

I expect Iguodala to match up w/ DeRozan in here while K. Lowry will be busy to defend S. Curry…

A couple of weeks ago, TOR would have a substantial edge w/ 2nd unit over GSW, but I don’t think that this potential edge is so clear right now b/c GSW bench now w/ S. Blake, Barnes, Green & Jermaine O’Neal played great @NYK in the last game.

I’m taking the Warriors in this contest in a relatively low scoring game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Golden State Warriors (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker