NBA Premium Card 03/19

NBA - 601 Chicago Bulls @ 602 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #1

I faded the Bulls in their last game vs. OKC mostly because OKC’s size on the frontcourt would be a tough matchup for CHI’s offense and indeed the Bulls struggled to score down low in that game: they have scored just 30 points in the paint while their frontcourt players had all subpar shooting numbers: Boozer 5-13 FG, Noah 2-8 FG and Gibson 6-14 FG!

The good news is that the Bulls will face the 76ers tonight and obviously, I expect them to simply crush the 76ers’ non-existent interior defense! CHI’s great offensive flow will generate good looks especially w/ Noah finding his teammates attacking the rim.

On the other end, we all know that the 76ers will push the pace @ every chance and actually, we are dealing w/ a “confident” 76ers’ team that is coming from a solid game @IND! PHI was able to hit 9-23 from behind the line (39.1%). Thad Young will have some edge vs. Carlos Boozer and ultimately, I expect the 76ers to be merely decent on the offensive end.

My fair line for this contest is 198/200 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 603 Miami Heat @ 604 Boston Celtics

Play #2

It was “weird” to watch the Heat had some problems down the stretch @CLE last night even after LeBron James went off in the first quarter w/ 25 points! There is a clear problem of lack of fluidity and continuity with the Heat right now… LeBron James played 42 minutes and Bosh 39 minutes, so this isn’t a good spot for MIA – b2b games on the road!

We can be pretty sure that the Celtics will be fired up for this contest! Rondo and Bradley are all already confirmed to be in the starting lineup and they know how to play vs. MIA. I expect Bradley to be a tough defensive matchup for D. Wade while Rondo will setup his teammates down low.

BOS’s offensive rebounding has been pretty solid w/ their frontcourt unit of Bass, Humphries, Sullinger & Olynyk and for tonight, I expect the Celtics to control the glass with some ease vs. MIA.

Eventually, the Heat will take the game over down the stretch but we are dealing w/ 7-pts spread line and I’m taking the Celtics to be competitive in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 604 Boston Celtics (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA - 605 Charlotte Bobcats @ 606 Brooklyn Nets

Play #3

There are two big factors working favorably for the Bobcats IMO: 1) BIG AL! The Nets were able to crush the Suns primarily because PHX simply didn’t have any player capable of punishing the Nets’ small lineups… CHA has one player named Al Jefferson!; 2) The Nets defense is predicated to create TO’s and then finishing those plays in transition… it worked well against the Suns as BKN scored 20 fast break points! What’s then the problem vs. this Bobcats team? Well…the Bobcats are the BEST TEAM in the league in NOT committing TO’s with a nice 13.0% TO/rate! With the Nets having some problems to score in transition, I expect CHA to dominate the boards and in the half court, they are a really tough team to beat.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605 Charlotte Bobcats (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 615 Detroit Pistons @ 616 Denver Nuggets

Play #4

Yes…I like the Pistons tonight on the road basically for two major reasons:

1)      Ty Lawson is banged up and mostly likely he will miss tonight’s game, also W. Chandler is also OUT for tonight and these two players (more Lawson obviously) are KEY for the Nuggets success on the offensive end.

2)      As weird as it may sound, the absence of A. Drummond is actually a pretty good factor for the Pistons because it will “force” Josh Smith to play @PF and the Pistons have WAY BETTER numbers w/ Josh being the PF of the team. The floor spacing is better just because Smith is playing more closely to the basket while defensively, the Pistons are also more effective w/ more speed on the wings.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 615 Detroit Pistons (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 619 San Antonio Spurs @ 620 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #5

Almost a week ago I had a play w/ SAS-17.5 vs. the Lakers and honestly, I just can’t see how the Lakers can hang around vs. this Spurs in a pure “run and gun” affair.

I had one of my biggest plays of the season w/ OVER SAS vs. UTA and we were able to cash easily mostly because the Spurs’ offense is really crushing the league right now – they had Off. Rtg = 134.7 w/ 31 assists!

In the last H2H, I understand that the Lakers were playing @b2b spot but please note that the SAS bench scored 76 of San Antonio's 119 points in the game with five of those bench players scoring in double-figures.

For this contest, LAL’s “top” guard J. Farmar is OUT and as good as the Lakers offense might be at home, the Spurs are in another “planet” right now. Their bench would easily outscore LAL’s starters. This is a primetime TV game, so we can look forward to another blowout win from SAS in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 619 San Antonio Spurs (-13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker