NBA Premium Card 03/23

NBA - 707 Milwaukee Bucks @ 708 Sacramento Kings

Play #3

The Bucks are playing decently as of late and I expect the Bucks to be competitive against the Kings in here.

We all know that the Kings’ don’t a particular fluid offensive but lately it has been brutal to watch them… in L4 games they had 12, 17, 18 and 17 assists! SAC’s coach decision to start Reggie Evans is “good” for the rebounding department but w/ him on the court, basically the Kings are playing 4*5 on offense.

The opposition has been happening w/ the Bucks as they are sharing the ball quite well lately by averaging 24.3 assists per game in L7 games! They are coming from b2b competitive games @POR & @GSW which is a good sign…

B. Knight and Ramon Sessions are playing well especially via PNR’s and attacking the rim and I don’t think the Kings would be able to slow them down today.

My fair line for this contest is the Kings to be favored by 4/5 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ MIL in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Milwaukee Bucks (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 709 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 710 New York Knicks

Play #4

I really don’t think that the shorthanded Cavaliers’ team will be able to be competitive in this particular spot…

CLE will play today their 3rd game in 4 nights with the previous 2 games being vs. OKC & HOU. Last night they were involved in a pure run and gun game vs. HOU and their 2 top available guards Waiters & Jack logged major minutes. Actually, Waiters played 41 and 40 min in L2 games!

Weirdly, the Cavaliers were able to cover the spread in those 2 games despite being completely outplayed for the majority of the time. That happened because the Cavaliers rallied back @garbage 4th quarter time by outscoring OKC 27-17 and last night HOU 32-17.

For today, I don’t think CLE will have the proper “energy” to hang around vs. confident NYK team.

CLE is allowing their opponents to hit 11 treys per game in L7 games…they had their best perimeter defensive player banged up (L. Deng) which is good news for Carmelo Anthony. NYK has won the last H2H game by 10 points @CLE despite a phenomenal game from K. Irving = 30 points, 8 rebounds & 8 assists.

I expect a blowout win from the Knicks today and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 New York Knicks (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 711 Brooklyn Nets @ 712 Dallas Mavericks

Play #5 & #6

I think we are dealing with two similar teams and I don’t see any substantial difference between them and so, I think that the Mavericks are a bit overrated in this matchup.

Both teams don’t have any particular reliable inside game, so their offense is mostly via outside shots… both teams aren’t good offensive rebounding teams… so the team that will shoot better from outside most likely will win the game.

In this potential scenario, the Nets are shooting w/ extreme efficiency lately w/ 9-21, 9-20 e 9-17 3pts L3 games.  Despite being undersized @frontcourt, the Nets will have a good size edge on the backcourt w/ Deron Williams & Joe Johnson vs. Calderon & Monta Ellis.

Note also that BKN has been great defending 3pts lately by allowing 31.3% from 3pts in L10 games = #3 best mark in the league!

The first H2H game ended w/ the Nets winning by just one point and for this contest I also expect a close battle between these two teams.

I also expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game… this contest won’t be a fast paced one due to BKN’s style of play and w/ few 2nd chance points opportunities & pts in the paint, both teams would have to be shoot lights out from the outside for this contest to go OVER and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Brooklyn Nets (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

PREVIOUSLY ADDED:

NBA - 701 Atlanta Hawks @ 702 Toronto Raptors

Play #1

My fair line for this contest is 200 points so in my opinion, we are dealing with an inflated totals line.

TOR is coming from a brutal physical effort vs. OKC this past Friday. After some bad defensive games, the Raptors bounced back and held OKC to just 96 points @regulation. Their problem was Kevin Durant, but really, this a problem for every team in the league. 4 TOR’s starters logged at least 45 minutes w/ banged up Amir Johnson playing an insane 50 minutes!

On the end, ATL has lost the last game vs. NO in their worst defensive performance from a while. They couldn’t stop A. Davis (like Durant, the same thing can be said about Davis’ lately).

These two teams played vs. each other already in this week and the game ended w/ 212 points @ regulation. Both teams were incredible efficient w/ FT’s: TOR 26-29 FT - 90% mark and ATL 27-31 FT - 87% mark! Kyle Korver played that game but he’s OUT for today, while ATL’s guard Jeff Teague killed the Raptors w/ 11-18 FG & 11-11 FT for 34 points. However, note that Teague took advantage of the Raptors interior defense that was without Jonas Valanciunas who left the game early.

Today’s contest is primed to be a relatively low scoring game… we have an early start, TOR coming from a brutal effort and the Hawks without their best pure shooter = Under play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Phoenix Suns @ 704 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #2

I really expect this contest to be a classic shootout w/ +220 points scored.

The Wolves are playing w/ some great offensive flow as of late… Ricky Rubio has been more aggressive on the offensive end w/ success while rookie G. Dieng can run the floor pretty well which is good news for MIN’s great transition game.

For this contest, MIN has a favorable matchup vs. PHX’s undersized frontcourt. Kevin Love torched the Suns in the last H2H w/ 10-22 FG, 3-6 3pts & 10-14 FT’s for 33 points and for today, I expect the Wolves to dominate the glass w/ Kevin Love having a great edge on his individual matchup.

PHX’s is coming from b2b “good” defensive performances vs. ORL & DET but I really don’t think it was a considerable improvement from them. Note that they have faced a lowly ORL team playing @b2b spot without Nelson and w/ Vucevic being ejected and playing only 9minutes…obviously, the Magic didn’t have any chance in the 2nd half and PHX held them to just 41 pts! In the last game vs. DET, PHX was completely outrebounded (had just 40% reb/rate) but they benefited from the fact that DET couldn’t hit outside shots (something normal for them) w/ 4-16 3pts and especially, DET was miserable from the line w/ 10-26 FT’s (38.5% mark!!!).

On the other side, MIN had tremendous problems to stop opp. guards of attacking them off the dribble and convert @the rim. DAL & DEN combined to score 51 fast break pts & 118 points in the paint against them!! Yep, PHX have Dragic & Bledsoe ready to punish them today…

W/ this contest being a run and gun game and with both teams having some considerable edges @offense, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 218 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes