NBA Premium Card 03/26

NBA - 753 Phoenix Suns @ 754 Washington Wizards

Play #2

This Wizards’ team simply isn’t the same without Nene Hilario and this is starting to be noticed when the Wizards have tough games on the schedule. To make things even worse, WAS is now giving some major minutes to Gooden and Al Harrington – both streaky players on the offensive end but flat out terribly on the defensive end.

PHX w/ E. Bledsoe back is now playing @ extreme high level. Their pressure defense is terrific as they are averaging 17.0 opp. TO’s/game in L5 games and they have 3 nice role players coming off the bench in Green & brothers Morris.

PHX’s 2 biggest weaknesses are defensive rebounding & interior defense but, fortunately, the Wizards without Nene are averaging just 36 pts in the paint in L8 games! They are far from being a good offensive rebounding team as well, so we can say that the Wizards are a good matchup for this potent Suns’ team.

This is going to be a backcourt battle between these two teams and right now, I really think that PHX’s dynamic backcourt is playing better than WAS’s. Also, PHX has a substantial edge w/ their second unit and therefore, I’m taking the Suns in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 753 Phoenix Suns ML @ -127 / 1.79 on Betonline

NBA - 755 Toronto Raptors @ 756 Boston Celtics

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Yesterday I had a play w/ Over in the game TOR @ CLE and fortunately, after a slow start, both teams exploded offensively in the second and third quarter.

It was really predictable that both backcourts’ units would have an interesting offensive edge vs. each other, and indeed it happened: Waiters & Jack combined to hit 16-28 FG for 37 points while TOR’s backcourt did their damage from the outside w/ a nice 14-32 mark from behind the line.

TOR defense is struggling a bit vs. aggressive guards that attack them off the dribble but for tonight, I expect them to bounce back defensively because Rajon Rondo and A. Bradley don’t have the same superior ability to create shots off the dribble & attacking the rim. Also, BOS frontcourt is more “static” than NO’s, OKC’s, ATL’s & CLE’s and so, I expect both Amir Johnson & Valanciunas to be solid down low.

On the other end, this is a tough spot for the Raptors as they will play b2b nights. Both Lowry & DeRozan are playing a ton of minutes lately and Rondo + Bradley won’t be an easy matchup for them.

The first 2 H2H’s games so far in this season were both slow paced games, and I expect a similar game for tonight – pace wise. My fair line in here is 190 points and obviously, we are dealing w/ some great edge w/ Under and that’s I’m taking the Under as my Top Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 755/756 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 761 Miami Heat @ 762 Indiana Pacers

Play #4

Ok, so these two teams are struggling pretty badly as of late as both are far from the elite level that they have showed early on the season.

However, in this matchup I really think that MIA will explore the fact that IND isn’t playing at their best. We all know that IND’s edge over MIA relies on superior rebounding and inside domination. The problem is that IND’s rebounding numbers have been subpar as late and ESPECIALLY, they really can’t dominate anyone down low – in L10 games, IND is averaging just 35.8 points in the paint!!! IND isn’t capable of feeding their big men and w/ them struggling in this department vs. MIA, they simply won’t be able to hang around w/ MIA’s superior perimeter play.

Greg Oden will give +15 quality minutes to MIA, and so Bosh won’t have to play @center for long stretches. D. Wade is probable to play while R. Allen is OUT. The good news for MIA is that IND’s bench as been awful so I don’t think there will be any edge from both teams’ second units.

Having said that, IND’s inability to dominate down low is the X factor in this contest and the biggest reason why I’m taking the Heat tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 761 Miami Heat (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 763 Los Angeles Clippers @ 764 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #5

NO is in my opinion overrated for this contest. I understand that they are coming from nice b2b wins vs. MIA & BKN but note that they had some great physical edge vs. both teams. Against the Nets, they faced a old slow footed team that was coming from OT game @DAL and were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights while vs. MIA they were facing the Heat playing their 4th game in 5 nights!

It looks like Eric Gordon is OUT and B. Roberts is banged up and might miss the game as well. NO is playing some dismal perimeter defense and being so shorthanded vs. Chris Paul…. Good luck with that!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 763 Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 765 Denver Nuggets @ 766 San Antonio Spurs

Play #6

You know the drill: put SAS’s offense in a run and gun type of game, and the Spurs’ well oiled machine will just crush and dominate the game. This is even more important if we take in account that DEN is allowing almost 40% from 3pts in L10 games! Good luck DEN in stopping SAS’s offense tonight that will play w/ all their best players!

On the other end, I expect DEN to be decent offensively. The last 2 games that DEN failed to score +100 points were both @b2b spots in which fatigue was a factor, this isn’t the case tonight and so, we can expect the Nuggets to push the pace and score w/ some ease down low vs. SAS while my fair line in this contest is 220 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765/766 Over 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 769 Memphis Grizzlies @ 770 Utah Jazz

Play #7

The Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the league right now! They are coming from easy wins vs. IND & MIN and for this contest they have a pretty favorable matchup for them.

I faded UTA in their last game vs. DET w/ the X factor being:

“The good news is that UTA’s coach is now playing w/ Kanter & Favors together @ same time and well…the advanced metrics when these two players are on the court are terrible and it will fits well for DET’s frontcourt who is more skilled than UTA’s version.”

Well, the exact same thing can be said for tonight w/ Marc Gasol & Zach Randolph! UTA’s poor floor spacing on the offensive end will be easily defended by MEM’s elite defense. Note that UTA’s guards A. Burks is OUT for tonight and he played well in the last H2H between these two teams w/ 6-11 FG for 16 pts, 6 rebounds and 4 assists.

This is going to be the 3rd H2H game in this season w/ MEM winning the first 2 games by 10 points. In the last one (exactly one week ago), the Grizzlies easily crushed the Jazz in the first half by winning by 16 points w/ 48-32! Then they relaxed a bit and allowed the Jazz to be relatively competitive. For tonight, being this contest a “premium” ESPN game, I expect the Grizzlies to make a statement and easily dismantle this lowly UTA team.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 769 Memphis Grizzlies (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 769 Memphis Grizzlies @ 770 Utah Jazz

NBA - 763 Los Angeles Clippers @ 764 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #8

NOTE: Teaser play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 5-Points Teaser on 769 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) x 763 Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

PREVIOUSLY ADDED:

NBA - 751 Brooklyn Nets @ 752 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1 & #2

After playing consecutive back to back games on the road that went to Overtime, I don’t think that the Nets will be able to hang around w/ the Bobcats in this particular spot. Deron Williams played 41 and 42 minutes in those games and some early reports are reporting several Nets’ players banged up for tonight.

Note that we are dealing w/ a team that don’t have a proper inside game, instead, we are dealing w/ a jump shooting team that need “fresh legs” to hit those shots. In L2 games, BKN has shot 11-30 & 10-40 from 3pts!

To make things even worse, the Bobcats are a tough matchup for them… In the last H2H game, I had a play w/ CHA that was won despite CHA losing the game. As expected, the game was a super slow paced affair but both teams were extremely efficient on the offensive end: BKN shot 9-20 3pts and had 35 FT’s but only 34 pts in the paint while the Bobcats completely dominated the boards w/ 57% reb/rate% with Al Jefferson having a decent game (8-19 FG for 18 pts, 12 rebounds and 3 assists!).

In my opinion, it is more “expectable” for the Bobcats to replicate those edges than the Nets in this bad physical spot. CHA is coming from a pretty natural loss vs. HOU in the last game b/c HOU had Howard & Asik down low to patrol Al Jefferson, so I expect them to bounce back tonight while this contest will be a low scoring affair.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 752 Charlotte Bobcats (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 751/752 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker