NBA Premium Card 03/05

NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1 & #2

The Bobcats will play tonight their 4th straight game against elite teams... they have played @SAS, @OKC & @MIA. They ended up losing all those games by double digits points and going for tonight’s contest, I don’t think they will be able to hang around against the Pacers.

CHA has been decent offensively mostly because Al Jefferson has been playing in “god like” mode. He completely destroyed the Heat down low w/ 18-24 FG for 38 points and he was great against OKC as well w/ 10-16 FG for 25 points. However, “Big Al” had pretty favorable matchups in those games: 1) the Heat didn’t have any “big” player capable of slowing down unless Chris Andersen while 2) OKC without Perkins had rookie Adams as their starting center, and so Al Jefferson torched both teams…

That will change tonight because Al Jefferson will have to face one of the best defensive centers in the league in Roy Hibbert. With Big Al limited, CHA’s offense will struggle heavily… note that G. Henderson is OUT for tonight… CHA’s perimeter talent is limited and IND will be focused in stopping Kemba Walker + Al Jefferson.

This is a b2b spot for IND… they tend to struggle in those spots but fortunately for us, they are coming from a loss last night vs. GSW and the Pacers really perform well after losing one game: 9-3-1 ATS after losing this season.

I expect IND to bounce back tonight using primarily their stingy defense vs. CHA that right now depends way too much on Al Jefferson to be competitive.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Indiana Pacers (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 705 Utah Jazz @ 706 Washington Wizards

Play #3

UTA is the typical lowly team that is capable to be competitive against good teams but when involved in bad spots, they usual show a complete lack of effort. That was what happened w/ them in L2 games as after being a competitive dog @IND, they were crushed by the Bucks in the following night! I had a play w/ MIL in that game and it was really a no-show from UTA.

The good news is that I expect them to be focused in bouncing back tonight… they will face a Wizards’ team that is coming from a loss vs. MEM.

Nene Hilario is really a key piece for them and sooner or later, his absence will start to be “noticed”. This is a game where Nene would destroy Marvin Williams down low…but again…he’s OUT!

UTA’s PNR game could be a problem against a Wizards’ team that tends to be lazy on the defensive end vs. lowly teams. My fair line for this contest is WAS-5 points and so, I’ taking the Jazz in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Utah Jazz (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 707 Memphis Grizzlies @ 708 Brooklyn Nets

Play #4

BKN was able to defeat the Bulls in the last game mostly via creating TO’s... note that their FG% was about the same as CHI and obviously, CHI completely outrebounded them by having 57% reb/rate%! BKN took advantage of CHI’s awful physical spot while the Bulls really couldn’t explore the matchup between Boozer vs. P. Pierce.

With Pierce being the “PF” of this Nets starting lineup, it will be fun to watch him trying to guard Zach Randolph…good luck with that!

MEM is one of the best teams in the league right now…Conley is coming from b2b solid performances - looking 100% healthy to me! The huge edge that MEM will have on the glass & down low (they scored 62 points in the paint against WAS in the last game) will be too much IMO for this Nets team and therefore, I’m taking MEM in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Dallas Mavericks @ 718 Denver Nuggets

Play #5

I went against DEN in their last game vs. MIN and it was tough to watch us losing the play because DEN hit 4 3pointers in the last minute in a game where their awful defense was completely exposed by MIN’s offense.

Well, I expect the same thing for tonight as DAL’ fluid offense will be way too much for this Nuggets undisciplined defense. DEN P&R Ball Handler defense is ranked #28 in the league and so, we can expect DAL to run PNR after PNR against them!

DAL’s defensive problems as of late are related especially w/ perimeter but the good news is that DEN is really struggling to hit from the outside right now. DEN is 2-0 vs. DAL in the first 2 H2H games but those 2 games were played in November….right now, DAL is way better team than DEN!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker