NBA Premium Card 03/14

NBA - 807 Memphis Grizzlies @ 808 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

This is for me the best game of the board for tonight...

Both teams are playing really well as of late but I think that MEM’s superior edge on the frontcourt will make the difference.

TOR’s offense relies heavily on Lowry & DeRozan and MEM’s has the defensive tools to slow them down on the defensive end. Conley, C. Lee, Tony Allen and James Johnson are all good defensive players and I expect them to do a good job tonight. This will put an extra pressure on TOR’s frontcourt to produce offensively and we are not dealing w/ a skilled frontline from TOR. Note that TOR’s best PF shooter P. Patterson is OUT, and his presence would be key for tonight as he is the only TOR post player that could hit some outside shots.

TOR is struggling a bit w/ defensive rebounding and this will be explored by MEM tonight.

With the backcourt battle being a tight one, ultimately, MEM’s more offensive skilled frontline will be the X factor and therefore, I’m taking the Grizzlies in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807 Memphis Grizzlies (-1) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

NBA - 809 Phoenix Suns @ 810 Boston Celtics

Play #3

PHX is struggling right now and the presence of Bledsoe could hurt a bit their team dynamic especially because Gerald Green will now come off the bench and he was playing really well. Dragic is a bit of banged up w/ several minor injuries and the Celtics are a tough matchup for them tonight.

Rondo will play tonight and his passing ability is always a plus especially by feeding BOS’s big men! BOS’s offensive rebounding has been excellent as of late – they grabbed 20 offensive boards @IND already in this week! Against the undersized PHX’s frontcourt unit, I expect BOS to win the battle of the boards while they will be able to generate easy chances near the basket vs. PHX team that is allowing almost 50 pts in the paint since the All Star Break.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 810 Boston Celtics (+5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA - 811 Denver Nuggets @ 812 Miami Heat

Play #4

MIA is coming from (another) loss against the Nets in a game where the Nets proved that they are a tough matchup for them, especially because they play @small lineup like the Heat and MIA isn’t prepared right now to match them.

For tonight, MIA has a pretty favorable matchup vs. DEN…

DEN defense is just awful! Their backcourt is undersized, their defensive rotations are atrocious and they simply can’t protect the rim especially when Faried & Hickson are on the court @ same time – this happens a lot!!! We expect MIA to torch DEN’s defense with little effort…

On the other side, DEN’s relies on Ty Lawson to create some mismatches and feed their big men down low. The “problem” is that MIA is the best defense in the league pressuring the ball handler and so, I expect MIA to create a lot of problems to Lawson. With Lawson having some problems tonight, this Nuggets’ team simply can’t produce efficiently on the offensive end.

MIA is fired up and the Nuggets are simply a perfect team for their bounce back!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 812 Miami Heat (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 815 Los Angeles Lakers @ 816 San Antonio Spurs

Play #5

Well, OKC crushed the Lakers last night by 29 points and I really think that we should be dealing w/ Spurs being favored by +20 points tonight.

Again, this Lakers team simply don’t play defense and they try to push the pace @ every single chance! This is good news for the Spurs because they are simply crushing the league right now w/ their superb ball movement and great depth!

With such huge spread on the line, we need the Spurs’ bench to carry the team @ garbage time but this won’t be a problem IMO, actually I think that their 2nd unit would outscore LAL’s first unit!

LAL is coming from a B2B spot…they’ll need to hit their 3pts shots but we are dealing w/ healthy SAS team w/ their best perimeter defensive players on the court. In L10 games, SAS is allowing just 33.1% 3pts – ranked #5 in the league!

They will play @LAL in the next game, so I expect the Spurs to send a “message” and crush the Lakers tonight!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 San Antonio Spurs (-17.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 817 Los Angeles Clippers @ 818 Utah Jazz

Play #6

This would be a “pure” void in this contest if Marvin Williams was listed “probable” for tonight, because he would be “killed” by Blake Griffin tonight. However, Williams is OUT and the Jazz will start Kanter + Favors on the frontcourt.

The good news for UTA: w/ Kanter & Favors, UTA has “more” chances to be decent defensively against Griffin & Jordan.

The bad news? Well, so far in the season, every time that these two players are on the court at the same time, UTA’s offense has been simply horrible! Poor floor spacing is quite evident as both like to play near the basket and for some reason UTA’s head coach doesn’t start both.

LAC is coming from a nice 3-games home stretch vs. good offensive teams (PHX, ATL & GSW) and obviously, they had some natural problems @defense. I expect them to be decent tonight while I expect them to have a natural offensive letdown as well (playing @ road + few depth on the roster right now especially @ backcourt).

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Under 205 @  -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 801 Washington Wizards @ 802 Orlando Magic

Play #1

I had the Over in the last ORL game vs. DEN and actually I saw live that game… Well, ORL was completely crushed on the boards, ended up having just 43.4% reb/rate% while DEN’s athletic frontcourt dominated the undersized Magic line – Faried, Arthur and Hickson combined to score 60 points while shooting 24-38 FG for 63.2%! Offensively, the Magic was decent as Oladipo looked fine to me (he played 28 minutes).

For this contest, I expect ORL to be a tough matchup for the Wizards!

WAS is playing without Nene Hilario for quite some games, and this would be one of those games where Nene would crush ORL’s frontcourt, as the Magic since Big Baby went to LAC, don’t have any “capable” power forward! The Wizards have only in Gortat their “truly” post player, so it isn’t a surprise for me that they have only scored 30 and 32 points in the paint in L2 games.

Unlike DEN, the Wizards won’t be able to crush the Magic down. We will watch a game featuring two perimeter shooting teams and the Magic w/ Nelson, Afflalo and Oladipo are a dangerous team at home, especially now that Nikola Vucevic is starting to play really well (he’s averaging 17.0 ppg while shooting 54% FG).

I expect this contest to be a tight game and obviously, we have some edge w/ ORL+5 in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Orlando Magic (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline