NBA Premium Card 03/27

NBA - 801 Portland Trail Blazers @ 802 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1

We are dealing with two struggling teams that are coming for this contest w/ a great sense of urgency. I understand that both teams are struggling in both ends of the floor, but I expect this contest to have a good dose of defensive intensiveness.

Kyle Korver most likely will not play tonight and he is really a key piece for this ATL team. We all know that ATL is basically jump shooting team and w/ Korver on the court, they have simply one of the best shooters in the league. Korver has missed L4 contests – all ATL losses as ATL went just 28-99 from 3pts land – a miserable 28% mark!

On the other end, It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will play tonight and while I expect him to be a bit rusty w/ his shot, his presence on the defensive end will be crucial. Not because he is a great defensive player but because without him, POR is playing some miserable small ball lineups that can't defend at all. My fair line for this contest is 202/204 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 805 Philadelphia 76ers @ 806 Houston Rockets

Play #2

Yes, I expect the Rockets to crush the 76ers tonight by more than 20 points as my fair line in here is HOU-23/-25 points.

We all know how the 76ers struggle to hit outside shots - they are dead last in the league shooting 30.5% from 3pts! After a couple of decent games in this department, PHI has shot 10-41, 1-20 and 11-33 3pts in L3 games – 23% mark! Their ability to be competitive basically depends of their capacity to attack the rim and finish plays near the basket as they attempt more than 30% of their shots at the rim.

The problem for tonight is that they will have to play FULL 48 minutes vs. Howard first and then Omar Asik! The huge size of HOU’s centers will be a huge challenge for their guards... Not only I don't think that PHI' will be able to be decent near the basket but it will allow HOU to create plenty of TO's.

On the other end, we have a rested HOU team w/ a decent 2nd unit of Lin + Hamilton + Motiejunas and Asik that will outscore PHI’s with some ease.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 806 Houston Rockets (-19.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 807 Los Angeles Clippers @ 808 Dallas Mavericks 

Play #3

I know that the first 2 H2H games between these two teams finished w/ 231 and 256 points and so, making a play w/ Under in here @209.5 points doesn’t seem to be the best choice but I really expect both teams to struggle a bit on the offensive end.

First of all, note that in both 2 H2H contest, both teams were “rested” going for those games and this isn’t happening for tonight: LAC played last night @NO and their best 4 players logged at least 35 minutes, on the other end, even though DAL had one day off to rest, they are coming from b2b brutal efforts vs. BKN & OKC w/ both games going to OT.

In the last game, DAL explored pretty well OKC’s awful perimeter defense and torched them w/ 15-38 3pts mark. OKC is allowing +40% from behind the line in L10 games! However, LAC is way a better defensive team than OKC regarding stopping opp. perimeter play: they are in top 10 3pts defense in L10 games w/ 35% and they are the SECOND best defensive team vs. PNR ball handler plays – DAL‘s “premium” offensive play!

On the other end, LAC’s outside shooting has been highly inconsistent as of late…last night they attempted 30 three pointers (way too many IMO) but they hit 13-30 for a nice 43.3% mark. However, in the previous 4 games, LAC went just 32-96 behind the line (33.3%) and this might help DAL’s defense in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Under 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes