NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Milwaukee  at Minnesota

NBA - 557 Milwaukee Bucks @ 558 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #3 Yesterday, the Bucks defeated the Magic in a game where MIL’s head coach Larry Drew really wanted to win the game as he played MIL’s best player B. Knight for 44 minutes! Today’s contest will be MIL’s 4th game in 5 nights and it will be on the road so we are dealing with a team primed for a letdown. This 15-pts spread line is a fair line IMO due to MIL’s bad spot & MIN’s urgency in bouncing back after losing vs. TOR. However, I feel that we are getting some value w/ Under in this contest… MIL is an awful defensive team but their biggest weakness is to defend 3pts… Since the All Star break, they are allowing 40.7% while for the season, they are indeed the worst 3pts defensive team allowing 38.6%! The good news is that MIN isn’t a good 3pts shooting team – ranked #26 and in L10 games, they are shooting just 33.2% - ranked #25 in the league. MIN is instead a team that wants to pound down low and the Bucks are a decent defensive team protecting the rim… On the other end, w/ B. Knight coming from a huge effort last night, I don’t think that he will be efficient tonight. MIN L2 games vs. NYK & vs. TOR happened mostly because they couldn’t defend 3pts as NYK = 11-27 3pts & TOR = 14-24 but MIL’s is far from being a good outside shooting team!  Actually, in L3 games, MIL has shot 5-20, 4-16 & 8-27 from 3pts! My fair line for this contest is 210/212 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 557/558 Under 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline