Wednesday, March 28, 2012

NBA Premium Play 03/27: Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors


NBA - 773 Los Angeles Lakers @ 774 Golden State Warriors

Projected line: LA Lakers by 10 points

With Sessions, the Lakers are now playing much better on offense, with 113, 129, 113 and 111 offensive rates in their last 4 games! Their problem has been their effort on defense and rebounding. They are 2-2 on their last 4 games and in their two recent losses, they grabbed just 42.5 and 47.5% of the rebounds, while in their wins, they've grabbed 56.5 and 64% of the rebounds. Now against the Warriors, who are a terrible rebounding team, I expect the Lakers to have a huge boards edge on this contest.

Golden State has been playing shorthanded and with a lot of rookies. They've been playing undersized and they are being crushed on the boards, as they've just grabbed 43.6% of the rebounds in their last 5 games! The Lakers will have a huge edge in their interior offense today and with a bit of effort, they will close the paint to the Warriors, making them a pure outside shooting team. I expect the Lakers to take advantage of this very favorable matchup and bounce back in style today with a big win. Therefore, I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 773 Los Angeles Lakers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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