NBA - 701 Phoenix Suns @ 702 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: Phoenix by 7 points
The Suns played very well in Indiana, nothing to do with their poor performance in Orlando. Against the Pacers, Phoenix showed a fluid offense, with no kind of play having more than 15% of volume. There is a good continuity between units and on this game against Cleveland, the Suns will have a huge edge on P&R's, with Nash and Gortat against two rookies like Irving and Thompson. The Cavs are also just #29 in spot up defense and #26 in defending post up plays, so more problems for the Cavs defense on this game. Cleveland is now defending much worse near the basket by allowing 66% FG at the rim and 54% FG from 3-9 feet, while Phoenix is a good team on this area due to Nash's great passes.
On the other hand, Phoenix's defense has been struggling on post up plays and offensive rebounds, but Cleveland is a poor offensive team on this kind of plays. The main reason why Cleveland has been losing games lately has been their poor outside shooting with 30% FG from 16-23 feet and 33% from 3pts in their last 10 games, something normal since Sessions is now in LA and Gibson is injured.
Phoenix is now highly motivated in the fight for the playoffs and they have in the Cavs a great matchup. In the first game of the series, Cleveland won on the road with a clear dominance on the boards with 33-22 on offensive rebound rate, but Varejao was the main reason for that, while he won't be playing today due to injury. Besides that, Hill got injured in that game and played just 7 minutes, while he is playing very well right now and being a major contributor for the team. I expect the Suns to have no problems today and therefore, I'll take the Suns in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Phoenix Suns (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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