Saturday, March 17, 2012

NBA Premium Play 03/16: Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns


NBA - 817 Detroit Pistons @ 818 Phoenix Suns

Projected lines: 202 points | Phoenix by 8 points

Phoenix continues to play very well and especially with a lot of confidence. Yesterday, the Suns decided to rest Nash and Hill and they still made a huge comeback at the end of their road game against the Clippers to get a great upset win for them, with Dudley, Frye and Brown leading the team's offense. Today, the Suns will have Nash and Hill back and with them being super confident right now, I expect them to have another great offensive night. Their ball movement has been amazing in their last 5 games with an A/TO ratio of 2.27! At the same time, they have also been showing better rebounding and they are also being more aggressive in getting free throws, as their free throw rate in their last 5 games has been 23.5%, while they are just averaging 19.3% for the season.

In tonight's game against Detroit, the bad overall defense of the Pistons will be an easy target for the Suns offense. Detroit is coming from a nice road win in Sacramento, where their transitions and their inside game were their key to get the win. However, the Suns are a good transition defense by being #5 in the league allowing just 1.09 PPP, while Detroit isn't exactly a good shooting team and so, I wouldn't be surprised to see Phoenix using some zone defense today. I believe the Suns will have a huge offensive game tonight, outscoring the Pistons with ease, even though Monroe is in great form and may have a good game tonight. I expect Phoenix to grab a comfortable win in here in a high scoring game and so, I'll take both the Suns and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Over 197,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 818 Phoenix Suns (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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