NBA - 511 San Antonio Spurs @ 512 Dallas Mavericks
Projected line: 188 points | Dallas by 6 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This is a back to back game for San Antonio, as last night they had a huge win at Oklahoma City by taking advantage of the poor spot of the Thunder in that contest. The Spurs pounded down low with 20-35 FG at the rim, with Blair having an excellent game. Duncan dominated the boards, while their P&R play simply squashed the Thunder's lazy defense. Note that the Spurs have today their worst spot in a long time and they ran like hell yesterday, as their game against Oklahoma City had a pace of 98! They will have Manu back and Jackson will debut, however we don't know if the chemistry will be perfect from early on with these changes.
On the other hand, Dallas has a better spot with 1 day off to rest and by being currently on a home span. They are coming from two non impressive wins over Washington and Charlotte, but they have been impressive on the boards in their last 4 games, with Mahini being really good on this area. Dallas has been struggling on the continuity between their starters and the bench, besides some struggles from Kidd and Carter. The Mavs are a very good defensive team in terms of spot up plays by being #2 in the league while allowing 0.86 PPP, while they are #1 in the league in defending P&R plays with just 0.68 PPP allowed, so the Spurs on this bad physical spot for them are likely to struggle offensively tonight. The head to head is tied at 1-1, with the home team winning both games. I expect this game to be a slow paced game like the first two games between the two teams with paces of 88 and 85. Considering San Antonio's tough spot and the good defensive matchups in favor of Dallas, I believe the Mavs should be able to stop the Spurs offense, while Dallas hasn't been very good on offense themselves in their last games. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Triple Dime Play! Looking at the problems I expect the Spurs to have tonight, I'll also be taking Dallas in here in a Single Dime Play
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Dallas Mavericks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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