Wednesday, March 28, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play: Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers


  
Detroit  at Cleveland 
 
 
NBA - 503 Detroit Pistons @ 504 Cleveland Cavaliers


Projected line: 195

Cleveland is coming from a normal loss at Philadelphia last night, in a super bad matchup for them. Irving was in trouble the whole night due to the great perimeter defense of Philadelphia with Holiday defending him and of course, he was only able to have 4-13 FG, 7A and 5 TO! The Sixers are also good in defending transitions plays and Cleveland was only able to shoot 3-8 FG in transitions last night. Philadelphia really turned the lane into a no-fly zone for Irving, who stated exactly that:

“I don’t think I had one uncontested layup tonight.” said Irving, who's averaging 18.6 points. “The last three games have been tough to find my rhythm. Teams are giving me different looks every game, too. I have played a few games in the league now, so teams have enough film on me to know my strengths and weaknesses.”

The Cavs were outscored 22-9 in fast break points and 54-24 in the paint last night. However, they will be facing Detroit tonight and their defense can't be compared with a top defense like the Sixers, especially on these areas. They are #19 in defending transition plays and they have a bad interior defense by allowing 69% FG at the rim in their last 10 games and 72% FG in their last 5 games! Irving will easily penetrate and either score or find a wide open team mate tonight with ease.

On the other side, Detroit is coming from three games where they scored 73, 79 and 79 points! If that was normal in their two first games of this span against Miami and the Knicks, the same can't be said in their game against Washington. That game was a weird one, as Detroit actually shot 16-24 FG at the rim, but their perimeter was a pure disaster with 6-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-13 3pts! However, Cleveland has been a terrible interior defensive team with their rookie Thompson in the lineup and so, Monroe should be able to have a good game tonight. We have two teams in here with little motivation to win tonight and therefore, I expect both teams to show little effort on defense. So, I came up with a totals projection of 195 points in here, high enough for me to take the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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