Saturday, March 24, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 03/24: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers


  
Memphis   at LA Clippers 
 
 
NBA - 501 Memphis Grizzlies @ 502 Los Angeles Clippers


Projected line: 185

The Clippers continue to be on an impressive slump in both ways of the floor, but especially on the offense. The funny thing is that they continue to be offensive rebounding machines and therefore, they have extra possessions. In their last game in New Orleans, they had a 40-23 edge in offensive rebounding rates with 9-13 FG in offensive rebound plays. The problem is really their half court offense, their perimeter players with zero confidence on their shooting and even their P&R plays aren't working well anymore: LAC shot 3-14 FG in P&R Ball Handler and 9-28 FG in spot up plays in their last game. They have been averaging just 31% FG from 16-23 feet and 28% in 3pts shots in their last 5 games! For today, Mo Williams will be out and so, the Clippers will have one less shooter playing. Defensively, Jordan has been in constant foul trouble and it has been easy to score against them, as they are allowing 68% FG at the rim in their last 10 games and 70% FG in their last 5 games! Besides that, the Clippers have no offensive flow right now on their 2nd unit and Mo's absence won't help that at all.

On the other side, Memphis are also on a slump, with a 1-4 record on their last 5 games. Just like the Clippers, they have been struggling to have any offensive flow thanks to Zach's come back and for now he has only been able to have a good 1st half, but then he completely disappears in the 2nd half. Most distressing has been the Grizzlies sudden inability to defend. In the last five games the Grizzlies have given up on average 107.6 ppg on 48.3% FG shooting. This from the team that was the best in the league just two weeks ago in preventing teams from scoring 100 points a game! "We've got to (figure) out whether we want to play hard for 48 minutes or if we want to be a cool team," guard Tony Allen said. "We've got to come out and play aggressive all throughout the game." Against a slumping team of the Clippers, I expect an extra defensive effort of the Grizzlies to be enough to stop their opponents today.

Considering the slump of both offenses and the slow pace that this game will have, I came up with a totals projection of 185 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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