Soccer World Cup Play: Argentina vs. Netherlands
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
“Unlikely tomorrow’s game between Argentina and Netherlands, this contest will be played @ blazing fast tempo because that’s just the way Brazil plays their game.”
These two teams are pretty similar in their “concept” of the game: they don’t take many risks when going forward, they have consistently 6 men well positioned defensively that won’t leave their position "for nothing", and obviously, they put almost all their “faith” that their best player solves the game for them: Messi for Argentina, and Robben for Netherlands.
I took the “UNDER” as my Top Play in the Dutch last game vs. Costa Rica:
“It might sound strange but IMO, the Dutch attack is far from being "that" impressive in this World Cup even though they have scored 5, 3, 2 and 2 goals in their games. Note that most all their goals have been scored via deadly counter-attacks… Arjen Robben is a “monster” in this type of plays! The problem is that the Dutch won’t have much space to counter-attack against the packed Costa Rica’s defensive line who will sit deep, so I expect Netherlands to struggle offensively.”
Obviously, I don’t expect Argentina to be 100% focused in defense like Costa Rica, but I expect similar offensive problems for the Dutch attack today. Unlike Brazil for example, Argentina’s full-backs aren’t offensive minded, they won’t be caught off the position and this could hurt the Dutch chances to score in transition from the wing.
The good news is that I expect Argentina to struggle (as always) in generating build-up plays. The Dutch NT Van Gaal will take a pretty similar approach from their game vs. Chile in which they won 2-0.
Here are my notes for NED in that game:
“I’ve faded them vs. Chile in the last game of the group stages w/ no success:
I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.
Well, the Dutch did the exact opposite in that game! They were ultra conservative, gave the “ball possession” to the Chileans and tried to do some damage in quick counter-attack moves – it worked perfectly for them!”
With both teams struggling in generating chances to score and w/ this contest being played @ slow pace = DOUBLE DIME PLAY w/ UNDER!
I’m also taking a small play w/ Argentina PK in here…
I expect a tight contest but I feel that Argentina can have some edge especially via the “Messi factor”. The Dutch side don't have strong defensive midfielders that are great in man-marking to do the job vs. Messi. Actually, they have one player (Nigel de Jong) but he is banged up and most likely will miss today’s contest. In a game that will be decided by minor details, this could be THE DIFFERENCE!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 2.25 Goals @ 124 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)
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