MLB - 909 Washington Nationals @ 910 Colorado Rockies
(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs. F. Morales)
Play #1
COL’s starting pitcher Franklin Morales’ numbers are just terrible. Not only his 5.47 ERA number for the season is atrocious, but also his advanced numbers aren’t pretty at all: 4.63 SIERA, 5.61 FIP & 4.53 xFIP! He also combines a poor K/BB ratio of 1.70 & 17.1% HR/FB rate = FADE MATERIAL!
However, he is coming from b2b decent starts in which he allowed just 1 ER’s in each game vs. LAD & SD. Still, his P/IP’s numbers in those 2 starts were high (17.3 & 17.8) and prevented him to reach the 6th IP in both games. I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced two subpar offensive teams in #28 ranked LAD & dead last #30 SD offenses vs. LHP’s (OPS ranks).
The Nationals are way better as they are ranked #8 vs. LHP in the season. They are confident w/ 4-1 SU record in L5 games and they have hit + .300 BA in their L4 games. I expect them to do some serious damage vs. Morales tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over TT Washington 5.5 Runs (w/ D. Fister) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline
MLB - 913 Boston Red Sox @ 914 Toronto Blue Jays
(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison)
Play #2
These two teams have been “UNDER” teams so far in the season but I think we have a good opportunity to cash w/ the OVER in here.
I expect TOR offense to do some damage vs. Lackey tonight. They are ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, and they are coming from nice b2b offensive games vs. TEX in which they had .395 & .343 BA’s.
John Lackey is in a slump lately… he escaped in his last start @HOU w/ just 2ER’s allowed, but his 3/5 K/BB numbers & 19.5 P/IP said it all about his problems in that game. Actually, in his L4 starts, he had 19.5, 22.5, 19.2 & 20.2 P/IP numbers and obviously, he didn’t go deep in those games.
On the other end, Hutchison is also struggling lately w/ 4, 4, 1, 3 & 6 ER’s allowed in his L5 starts. His numbers vs. LH batters this season have been really problematic for him: 337 wOBA + 4.44 FIP & 4.51 xFIP!
BOS will put 5 LH batters in the lineup for tonight:
I expect TOR offense to do some damage vs. Lackey tonight. They are ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, and they are coming from nice b2b offensive games vs. TEX in which they had .395 & .343 BA’s.
John Lackey is in a slump lately… he escaped in his last start @HOU w/ just 2ER’s allowed, but his 3/5 K/BB numbers & 19.5 P/IP said it all about his problems in that game. Actually, in his L4 starts, he had 19.5, 22.5, 19.2 & 20.2 P/IP numbers and obviously, he didn’t go deep in those games.
On the other end, Hutchison is also struggling lately w/ 4, 4, 1, 3 & 6 ER’s allowed in his L5 starts. His numbers vs. LH batters this season have been really problematic for him: 337 wOBA + 4.44 FIP & 4.51 xFIP!
BOS will put 5 LH batters in the lineup for tonight:
1. Brock Holt (L) 3B
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
3. David Ortiz (L) DH
4. Mike Napoli (R) 1B
5. Daniel Nava (S) LF
6. Stephen Drew (L) SS
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 3B
8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF
9. Christian Vazquez (R) C
I expect both offenses to generate some runs with this contest flying OVER the total posted.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker
MLB - 919 Baltimore Orioles @ 920 Los Angeles Angels
(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs. M. Shoemaker)
Play #3
Despite having a relatively decent 3.96 ERA numbers, Norris’ advanced numbers are way subpar: 4.38 SIERA, 4.74 FIP & 4.48 xFIP. We can add the fact that he had also a poor 2.14 K/BB ratio & an inflated 11.5% mark in HR/GB% ratio. I understand that he has some great numbers vs. LAA in the past w/ 0, 0, 1 & 0 ER’s allowed in 4 starts against them (all in the last season), but LAA’s offense this season is a complete different animal!
On the other end, we have Matt Shoemaker throwing for the Angels, and unlike Norris, his advanced metrics are way better vs. his ERA number. 4.38 ERA vs. 3.79 FIP & 3.36 xFIP! He has yet to face BAL’s, so he could have the factor surprise working favorably for him tonight as well.
Not only, LAA’s offense is red hot but they also have IMO the better SP in the mound and therefore, I’m taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 920 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ M. Shoemaker) @ -132 / 1.76 on Bookmaker
MLB - 921 Detroit Tigers @ 922 Arizona Diamondbacks
(Starting Pitchers: J. Verlander vs. V. Nuno)
Play #4
Verlander has been decent lately w/ a nice K/BB ratio of 27/5 in L5 outings. Even in his last start, he held Kansas City scoreless over six innings before surrendering four runs in the seventh and ending up with the loss. For today’s contest, he had 7 days off to rest, so I expect him to not tire so quickly like he did vs. KC.
On the other end, I expect DET’s offense to pound Vidal Nuno! I have DET being ranked #2 in the league vs. LHP while Nuno’s 43.3% FB% rate & 13.1 HR/FB rate will be well explored by the Tigers. Of the 16 homers he has allowed this year, 14 have been served up to right-handed hitters. Not surprisingly, RH batters have a stellar .841 OPS against him while LH’s are hitting just .231/.311/.359. Assuming Alex Avila starts, the Tigers will have eight righties in the lineup tonight, good luck Nuno!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ J. Verlander) @ -131 / 1.76 on 5 Dimes
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