Friday, July 4, 2014

Soccer World Cup Free Play 07/04: Brazil vs. Colombia

Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Colombia

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Hands down, Colombia has been the most exciting team of this World Cup.  I’ve released one of my biggest plays of the competition w/ them in the last game vs. Uruguay, and they didn’t disappoint us by winning “easily” the game 2-0. Here are some notes I’ve made about them

“The bad news for them is that unlike Italy and England, Colombia attacking fluidity is astonishing! Their playmaker James Rodriguez has been one of the best players of this tournament and their attacking midfield unit (Rodriguez, Cuadrado and Ibarbo) are playing quite well w/ great tempo and some beautiful passing plays between them. The difference of “dynamic” between this unit and the Uruguayans midfield unit is just huge!  As brave as the Uruguayan defensive line has been in the last 2 games, we are talking about another different level w/ the Colombian attack…”

Well, Colombian’s playmaker James Rodriguez did it again… This team has great width and pace on the wings, and w/ James at great level, it is really tough to stop them because they are generating build-up plays from everywhere! Obviously, I expect Brazil’s NT coach Scolari to be focused in limiting James, but the bad news for him, is that Brazil’s best defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo is suspended and will miss this contest. Gustavo is a KEY PIECE for Brazil w/ his great defensive positioning, and they really don’t have a good replacement for him in their roster… I expect Paulinho or Ramires to play his position but w/ way less defensive efficiency = great potential edge for Colombia!

As good as Colombia has been, I feel that their defense hasn’t been properly tested in this World Cup. Yes, they held Uruguay scoreless in the last game, but Luis Suarez didn’t play and without him, Uruguay’s attack is really poor:

“Once again (and even w/ Suarez), Uruguay had some huge problems to generate build-up plays against the Italian defense. Their lack of creativity on the midfield was well noticed and they really needed Suarez to make some “magic moves” for them because collectively, they just can’t do it. Note that their goal vs. Italy came from a set piece play.”

In the group stage, they have allowed one goal vs. Ivory Coast & Japan and even tough Greece didn’t score against them, they created plenty of good chances to score. Colombian’s duo of center-backs are slow-footed (especially the 38-years old veteran Mario Yepes) and their full-backs are super offensive-minded. This could be dangerous against Brazil’s top forwards and midfielders who will have some space to attack, and I expect Brazil to do some damage as well…

I understand that the Round of L16 produced 6 “UNDER’s”, 1 “OVER’ & 1 “PUSH” and therefore, the books adjusted their totals line for this stage w/ this conservative mindset, but these two teams have some good attacking edges. My fair line for this contest is 2.5/3 Goals and so, I’m taking OVER & Both Teams to Score in this contest!

Split the wager 50/50 like it was One "Double Dime Play":

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -105 / 1.95 on Betonline)

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ +100 / 2.00 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +100 / 2.00 on 5 Dimes)

No comments:

Post a Comment