MLB - 957 New York Mets @ 958 Milwaukee Brewers
(Starting Pitchers: D. Gee vs. M. Garza)
Play #1
MIL is feeling good right now after winning 3 straight contests vs. CIN. They will face NYM’s Dillon Gee who is primed for a regression in this 2nd half of season. His 2.92 ERA mark is great for the season but his 4.19 FIP / 4.00 xFIP / 4.04 SIERA stats line are telling us that he is way overrated! In his last start, he didn’t do well @SD as he allowed 4ER’s in just 5IP’s! Allowing 2 HR’s @SD is really a bad sign for him, and I expect a healthy MIL lineup to do some damage today.
On the other side, I expect a strong bounce back performance from Matt Garza. I’ve faded him in his last start @WAS, but I really didn’t expect such epic meltdown from him: “In the shortest outing of his career, Garza was able to record just one out Saturday night as the Washington Nationals scored five times in the first inning”
It was a weird outing b/c Garza was coming from great b2b outings in which he allowed just 2 ER’s in 16.2 IP’s of work. The Mets had a nice offensive stretch early on the month, but they are clearly struggling right now. I have them dead last #30 in the league in L7 games and they didn’t reach the .200 BA’s mark in 4 of their L5 games, so this is a good spot for Garza to bounce back!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Milwaukee Brewers RL-1.5 (w/ M. Garza) @ +140 / 2.40 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment