MLB Premium Card 07/19

MLB - 905 Milwaukee Brewers @ 906 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Garza vs. T. Roark)

Play #1

I expect the Nationals to bounce back tonight after losing the first game of the series 2-4. Actually, despite losing, WAS “outhit” 11-8 MIL, but the lack of “clutch” from WAS’s batters was the X factor: MIL went 1-1 in RISP vs. 1-10 from WAS!

MIL will throw Matt Garza to the mound and even though he was great in the L2 starts vs. PHI & CIN, I expect him to have some problems vs. this WAS lineup.

However, I really like our chances w/ WAS’s SP Tanner Roark. He struggled in b2b starts, both were against the Cubs in which he allowed 4 ER’s but he bounced back pretty strongly in the last start. One possible key factor for this bounce back = prolonged rest! For today he had 5 days off and so, we are dealing w/ a good spot for him. Note that Roark has some pretty nasty numbers vs. RH batters: .280 wOBA + 2.45 FIP + 3.02 xFIP! When facing the Brewers’ potent but heavy RH lineup, these great numbers vs. RH batters could make the difference, especially when Roark is yet to face them! Therefore, I'm taking the Nationals in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 Washington Nationals ML (w/ T. Roark) @ -126 / 1.79 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 907 San Francisco Giants @ 908 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs. H. Alvarez)

Play #2

SF’s offense has shown some signs of life in their last 2 games by scoring 8 and 9 runs, so we are getting them w/ some renewed confidence.

Tim Hudson is coming from a tough outing vs. OAK in which he allowed 6 ER’s in just 5.1 IP’s of work. Hudson’s problems vs. LH batters (w/ .323 wOBA + 3.64 FIP + 4.12 xFIP) were well explored by the A’s dynamic lineup and he couldn’t match them. I expect them to bounce back vs. MIA today! MIA’s lineup for today:

1. Christian Yelich (L) LF
2. Jordany Valdespin (L) 2B
3. Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF
4. Casey McGehee (R) 3B
5. Garrett Jones (L) 1B
6. Marcell Ozuna (R) CF
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C
8. Adeiny Hechavarria (R) SS
9. Henderson Alvarez (R) P

MIA will put “only” 4 batters from the left side w/ only Yelich being a real threat for him (Garrett Jones potentially is the other one but he is batting .200 BA in L30 days), so this is a good spot for Hudson.

On the other side, Henderson Alvarez is primed for a letdown in this second half of season. His stellar 2.63 ERA numbers is not supported by advanced metrics: 3.69 SIERA, 3.35 FIP & 3.57 xFIP! SF’s has some good numbers vs. him, he has faced twice the Giants since the last season and SF torched w/ 4 ER’s in each game!

I think we have a good pitching edge favoring the Giants while their offense has some good confidence right now and therefore, I'm taking them in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ T. Hudson) @ -112 / 1.89 on Betonline

MLB - 923 Houston Astros @ 924 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs. H. Noesi)

Play #3

I think we have a tremendous pitching mismatch in this contest w/ HOU’s Dallas Keuchel being way better in my PR’s numbers vs. Noesi and obviously, this current 50/50 price odds for the game doesn’t makes sense for me.

Keuchel started the season pretty strong but lately, he has been faded a bit as he has allowed 4, 4, 5 and 4 ER’s in his L4 starts. Maybe he was tired? Well, he is super fresh for today w/ 9 days off! Key factor IMO: just look for their opponent’s ranks vs. LHP in that L4 starts:

TEX        #11      
LAA        #1
TB          #5
WAS      #6
…
CWS      #28

You can see the difference! He has faced 4 elite offensive teams vs. LHP’s and today’s matchup vs. CWS is quite favorable vs. one of the worst offensive teams vs. LHP.

On the other end, I understand that Hector Noesi is capable of anything: his L4 starts ER’s numbers are 6, 0, 5 & 2 ER’s. But his 4.49 SIERA / 4.83 FIP & 4.46 xFIP numbers line are pretty mediocre for the season. The Astros have faced him in May and pounded him w/ 8H, 6R, 5ER & 2 HR’s! = PITCHING MISMATCH!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923 Houston Astros ML (w/ D. Keuchel) @ -106 / 1.94 on Betonline