MLB Premium Card 07/22

MLB - 953 San Francisco Giants @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Petit vs. R. Hernandez)

Play #1

Yesterday, these two teams combined between them 29 hits, so they are coming for tonight’s contest w/ a nice offensive rhythm. With Petit and Hernandez on the mound, I don’t think that this is change dramatically for today.

Petit has been decent in a relief role and has a nice 3.86 ERA / 3.05 FIP / 3.34 xFIP line to show this season, but his struggles vs. LH batters are well noticed: .371 wOBA + 6.02 FIP + 4.45 xFIP! Yikes! Now, here some bad news for him…. PHI’s lineup for tonight:

1. Ben Revere (L) CF
2. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Ryan Howard (L) 1B
5. Marlon Byrd (R) RF
6. Grady Sizemore (L) LF
7. Cody Asche (L) 3B
8. Cameron Rupp (R) C
9. Roberto Hernandez (R) P

He will face 6 LH batters w/ the first 4 of them hitting all from the left side! I expect him to struggle a bit in this bad matchup.

On the other end, I just don’t trust in Roberto Hernandez. He had a nice start @MIL just before the all star break but, once again, his K/BB numbers were subpar w/ 3/2. This could be problematic against a Giants’ offense that has been pretty decent in this 2nd half of season and is ranked #8 & #11 in L14 days in K% & BB% rates, so I expect them to make Hernandez work hard for his pitches.

With the two SP’s having tough matchups, I’m taking my chances w/ OVER at this 8-runs line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8 (w/ Y. Petit & R. Hernandezr) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB - 967 Kansas City Royals @ 968 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: B. Chen vs. S. Carroll)

Play #2

KC had a legit shot to hit Chris Sale last night but they failed some clutch shots and lost once again. For tonight, I expect them to bounce back w/ Bruce Chen on the mound. Chen made 3 appearances since he came off the DL, and his last one vs. DET is a great sign for us.  He held the Tigers to just 2 ER’s for a nice 2.39 FIP game log. Note that we are talking about DET’s potent lineup (#2 vs. LHP this season)! CWS offense is ranked #28 vs. LHP, so this is a good matchup for him.

KC will face Scott Carroll tonight who is coming from quality b2b outings vs. BOS & CLE. However, KC batters know him relatively well, and already did some damage: 7.81 ERA and 4:6 K:BB across seven innings (one start, one relief appearance).

I expect KC to be fired up and w/ a pitching edge on the mound, I’m taking them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 967 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ B. Chen) @ -135 / 1.74 on Betonline

MLB - 969 Cleveland Indians @ 970 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: D. Salazar vs. Y. Pino)

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Salazar disappointed in the first half of season, but he is getting a second opportunity to grab a spot in the rotation. His K’s numbers in the minors are truly impressive and the Twins are a favorable matchup for him b/c they are ranked #24 w/ 21.4% in K%, so they are prone to be K’ed a lot, and I expect Salazar to be decent.

On the other end, I expect CLE offense to pound Yohan Pino tonight. He is coming from nice b2b starts vs. NYY & SEA. However, his split numbers vs. LH batters are atrocious: 384 wOBA + 4.77 FIP + 5.66 FIP!

Now, please note the Rankings of his opponents vs. RHP in his L3 starts:

SEA #17
NYY #24
KC #20

Well, CLE is ranked #4 vs. RHP’s this season and I’ve just confirmed their lineup for tonight:

1. Jason Kipnis (L) 2B
2. Chris Dickerson (L) LF
3. Michael Brantley (L) CF
4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B
5. Lonnie Chisenhall (L) 3B
6. Nick Swisher (S) DH
7. Yan Gomes (R) C
8. David Murphy (L) RF
9. Mike Aviles (R) SS

I expect Pino to struggle a lot tonight vs. the Indians! 

Split the wager:

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Cleveland Indians ML (w/ D. Salazar) @ -141 / 1.71 on Betonline

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Cleveland Indians RL-1.5 (w/ D. Salazar) @ +120 / 2.20 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 973 Houston Astros @ 974 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: B. Oberholtzer vs. S. Kazmir)

Play #4

At this current price, I just have to take a shot w/ the lowly Astros against the best MLB team.

Scott Kazmir has been great this season although his stats lines of 2.38 ERA / 3.20 FIP / 3.36 xFIP are suggesting that he might be a bit overrated. Nevertheless, HOU is going to be a tough matchup for him IMO. We are talking about a confident team that has scored 11 runs & 17 hits in their last game, they are hitting .377 BA vs. LHP in L10 games and they currently ranked #3 in the season vs. LHP’s = NOT BAD!

On the other end, Oberholtzer has been a bit unlucky as his 4.50 ERA number is way overrated vs. his 3.62 FIP line. Still, he had 4 quality outings in his L5 starts and note that he has faced BOS, LAA, DET, BAL, SEA & DET! Super tough matchups for him! OAK is also a good offense but he is battle tested for this matchup.

Split the wager:

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on 973 Houston Astros RL+1.5  (w/ B. Oberholtzer) @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime Play) on 973 Houston Astros ML (w/ B. Oberholtzer) @ +230 / 3.30 on Betonline

MLB - 979 New York Mets @ 980 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. E. Ramirez)

Play #5

I understand that it is tough to cash w/ OVER in games involving the Mariners b/c the UNDER is 55-40-4 so far in the season, but I think that we have a good chance tonight…

NYM’s SP Jacob deGrom has some good numbers to show for the season w/ 3.18 ERA, 3.25 FIP & 3.45 xFIP! He has a great 23.5% K% mark for the season and his last 3 starts were amazing in that regard as he compiled 27 K’s vs. just 4 BB’s! However, I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced ATL twice and MIA in those 3 games, and these teams are ranked #25 & #29 in K%’s! He had some pretty favorable matchups and indeed he took care of the job. SEA is ranked #9 in K% in L14 days and they are coming from a nice 14-hits outburst from last night. I expect deGrom to struggle a bit in here.

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound. Ramirez has some awful numbers to show w/ 4.58 ERA, 5.71 FIP & 4.93 xFIP! His command has been even worst w/ 1.45 K/BB ratio. This is where I like the Mets to be decent offensively! NYM has been a patient lineup all season long! They are ranked #4 in BB% w/ 9.1% & in L30 days = #9 w/ 8.9% BB%! I expect them to put some extra pressure on Ramirez and obviously, I’m taking the OVER in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 7 (w/ J. deGrom & E. Ramirez) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker