MLB Premium Card 07/23

MLB - 907 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 908 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: D. Haren vs. F. Liriano)

Play #4

Even though the Pirates are a bit “chalky” favorites in this contest, I think that we should have them favored in -150’s and therefore, I see enough value in them for tonight.

Dan Haren is clearly struggling… In June, he had a subpar 5.73 FIP mark to show, and already in this month, his 5.28 FIP & .457 wOBA numbers aren’t pretty at all! Let’s just say that the Padres’ offense didn’t have any problems to score against him twice (3 & 4 ER’s allowed in just 5.2 & 4.0 IP’s), so we can understand how badly he has been pitching. PIT is hitting well during this home span. Only LAD’s Ryu and COL’s Brett Anderson gave them some problems and the common factor between these two pitchers? Both are LHP’s where PIT is just ranked #28 (OPS) vs. LHP’s this season, so their problems were quite natural! This isn’t the case vs. RHP’s where PIT is ranked #6! I could see Haren giving up some runs tonight…

On the other end, PIT will send F. Liriano to the mound. Liriano struggled in his first start since he was activated from the DL against CIN in which he allowed 3 ER’s in 4.0 IP. Most likely, he was “rusty” because he bounced back in his last start vs. COL in which he held them scoreless in 5IP’s while having 8K’s.

His game log numbers were terrific:

ERA        FIP         xFIP
0.00       1.74       2.50

He will face a LAD lineup that is struggling vs. LHP lately w/ just .222 BA in L10 games. They are also ranked just #26 (OPS) vs. LHP this season, so we are getting a nice matchup advantage for the Pirates IMO and therefore, I’m taking them in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ F. Liriano) @ -132 / 1.76 on Betonline

MLB - 917 Boston Red Sox @ 918 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: C. Buchholz vs. R. Dickey)

Play #5

TOR answered pretty well last night after being stomped by the Red Sox in the first game of the series by winning the game 7-3. However, note that BOS had some good chances to make some damage as they had 11 hits but went only 1-9 w/ RISP. Their offense is for real: ranked #1 in the league in L14 days!

They will face tonight R.A. Dickey and I expect Dickey to have some problems. His advanced numbers are suggestion some regression for him w/ 3.95 ERA vs. 4.55 FIP & 4.21 xFIP! He is prone to give up some HR’s w/ 12.1% HR/FB ratio and his command isn’t impeccable… this is extremely dangerous against BOS’s hot bats.

On the other end, I expect Clay Buchholz to enjoy a great 2nd half of season.

Fangraphs.com did a nice article about him:

“After missing a month, Buchholz returned to the mound, having made four starts since rejoining the rotation. And what a turnaround it has been. He’s posted a 2.73 ERA over 29.2 innings, which was driven by a sparkling 23/1 K/BB ratio. But the best news is that his velocity is back. Having failed to average 92 mph in any game earlier in the season, Buchholz has averaged between 92.3 mph and 92.7 mph with his fastball over those four starts. That’s great news and provides enough reason to believe that he’s back. Target him now while his full-season stats still look terrible.“

 He was outstanding against HOU w/ a shutout complete game, and even though he had some problems vs. KC (he allowed 4ER’s), his advanced numbers in that game looked sharp w/ 2.14 FIP & 2.99 xFIP! His 22/1 K/BB ratio in his L3 starts is a great sign for him!

I think we have a pitching mismatch favoring the Red Sox and this is enough for us b/c their red hot offense will be decent vs. Dickey IMO.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ C. Buchholz) @ -101 / 1.99 on Bookmaker