Soccer World Cup Play: Brazil vs. Netherlands
This is toughest game to handicap in the World Cup as both teams were eliminated in the semis’, and most probably, both would wish to not play today’s contest. Motivation (or lack of it) is always a tough factor in these kind of games and both coaches will rotate their team, giving opportunities for those who didn’t play much in this tournament.
The lack of concentration and intensity are pretty common in these games. That’s why they are usually high scoring games:
1978: Brazil 2 Italy
1982: Poland 3 France 2
1986: France 4 Belgium 2 (aet)
1990: Italy 2 England 1
1994: Sweden 4 Bulgaria 0
1998: Croatia 2 Netherlands 1
2002: Turkey 3 South Korea 2
2006: Germany 3 Portugal 1
2010: Germany 3 Uruguay 2
We are dealing w/ a relatively high totals line of 2.75/3 goals for some reason and I don’t see much value in this line.
However, I see some nice value w/ Brazil @ this current price for several key factors:
First of all, I expect Brazil to have a bit “more” motivation than the Dutch team. I understand that they were humiliated vs. Germany but we should not forget that they are still playing at home, and they want to show they have some “pride” in front of their fans.
I also think that the Brazilians could have some physical edge in here. They had one more day off to “rest” vs. NED, and we couldn’t also ignore the fact that the Dutch side is coming from b2b full 120min overtime games vs. Costa Rica & Argentina in the last 2 games.
Both NT coaches will make some changes in their starting lineups, and I think that Brazil has more depth on their roster than the Dutch. Actually, putting Hulk, Fred and/or Oscar in the bench could be a good thing for them, because they all considerably under-performed in this tournament, and Brazil has some quality in their second line of players when we compared w/ the Dutch bench.
There is no question that Netherlands is more organized collectively than Brazil. However, their system relies in a good defensive positioning as they played primarily w/ a conservative mindset. The problem is that as I’ve mentioned before, in these games, teams tend to not be 100% focused, and the Dutch team will be tempted to play a more free-floating offensive game today. This is good news for Brazil because the game will be played @ their preferred style: broken up and down contest w/ a lot of pace instead of the "boring" Dutch slow-paced approach.
The lack of concentration and intensity are pretty common in these games. That’s why they are usually high scoring games:
1978: Brazil 2 Italy
1982: Poland 3 France 2
1986: France 4 Belgium 2 (aet)
1990: Italy 2 England 1
1994: Sweden 4 Bulgaria 0
1998: Croatia 2 Netherlands 1
2002: Turkey 3 South Korea 2
2006: Germany 3 Portugal 1
2010: Germany 3 Uruguay 2
We are dealing w/ a relatively high totals line of 2.75/3 goals for some reason and I don’t see much value in this line.
However, I see some nice value w/ Brazil @ this current price for several key factors:
First of all, I expect Brazil to have a bit “more” motivation than the Dutch team. I understand that they were humiliated vs. Germany but we should not forget that they are still playing at home, and they want to show they have some “pride” in front of their fans.
I also think that the Brazilians could have some physical edge in here. They had one more day off to “rest” vs. NED, and we couldn’t also ignore the fact that the Dutch side is coming from b2b full 120min overtime games vs. Costa Rica & Argentina in the last 2 games.
Both NT coaches will make some changes in their starting lineups, and I think that Brazil has more depth on their roster than the Dutch. Actually, putting Hulk, Fred and/or Oscar in the bench could be a good thing for them, because they all considerably under-performed in this tournament, and Brazil has some quality in their second line of players when we compared w/ the Dutch bench.
There is no question that Netherlands is more organized collectively than Brazil. However, their system relies in a good defensive positioning as they played primarily w/ a conservative mindset. The problem is that as I’ve mentioned before, in these games, teams tend to not be 100% focused, and the Dutch team will be tempted to play a more free-floating offensive game today. This is good news for Brazil because the game will be played @ their preferred style: broken up and down contest w/ a lot of pace instead of the "boring" Dutch slow-paced approach.
I expect Brazil to win this contest and secure the third-place spot in this tournament
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil ML @ +113 / 2.13 on Bookmaker
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