MLB Premium Card 07/29

MLB - 903 Washington Nationals @ 904 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: S. Strasburg vs. H. Alvarez)

Play #1

I expect this contest to be a classic “pitcher’s duel” between Strasburg and Alvarez. Yesterday’s matchup ended w/ a MIA thriller win by 7-6 runs, but note that the game wasn’t a pure shootout at all. WAS did their biggest damage in a 5-runs 6th inning while MIA didn’t score a single run in the first 6 innings just to explode late in the game.

For today, WAS is throwing S. Strasburg to the mound and I expect him to be quite decent. Even though he has allowed 4ER’s in his last 2 starts vs. MIL & @COL, his advanced numbers were impeccable w/ 2.42 & 1.02 FIP! He is primed to bounce back tonight…

On the other end, Alvarez has been pretty consistent lately expect one bad outing @NYM. His grounders have been working and his command improved lately w/ just 3 walks in his L5 starts! He has faced WAS twice this season, and held them to just 1 ER allowed in 10.2 IP’s of work!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 7 (w/ S. Strasburg & H. Alvarez) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 905 Philadelphia Phillies @ 906 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: C. Hamels vs. D. Gee)

Play #2

We easily won w/ the Mets last night but truth be told, the Phillies had some great chances to score but failed to convert them, that’s why they produced just one run despite smacking 13 hits!!

For today, I think that we have another pitching mismatch, but this time, PHI has the edge!

Cole Hamels has been pretty sharp lately… his 19/1 K/BB ratio in his L2 starts is outstanding alongside w/ 0.99 & 1.39 FIP! He might be traded for a contender sooner or later, and obviously, he wants to “shine” in front of them. NYM is ranked #21 vs. LHP’s this season, so I expect him to be decent tonight.

On the other end, I’m fading once again D. Gee…

On my play w/ MIL against him I’ve wrote:

“MIL is feeling good right now after winning 3 straight contests vs. CIN. They will face NYM’s Dillon Gee who is primed for a regression in this 2nd half of season. His 2.92 ERA mark is great for the season but his 4.19 FIP / 4.00 xFIP / 4.04 SIERA stats line are telling us that he is way overrated! In his last start, he didn’t do well @SD as he allowed 4ER’s in just 5IP’s! Allowing 2 HR’s @SD is really a bad sign for him, and I expect a healthy MIL lineup to do some damage today.”

Well, he got crushed by allowing 6 ER’s in just 5IP’s! His Fastball speed (average) was the lowest in all season w/ 88.0 MPH! I expect PHI offense to do some damage. Note that they are hitting quite well lately by being ranked #6 in the league L7 days!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Hamels) @ -117 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes

MLB - 911 Atlanta Braves @ 912 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs. J. Beckett)

Play #3

There were some doubts about Josh Beckett’s health in their first game coming off the DL and he didn’t fare well w/ awful 12.41 FIP mark! Was he healthy or it was just the “rusty” factor going against him?

According to fangraphs.com it was the latter:

“His indicators were similar to his previous 2014 values in velocity (see below) and Zone%.”

“Josh Beckett‘s looks fine”

I expect Beckett to be sharper tonight...

On the other end, I’m fading Harang in this tough matchup for him…

He was decent in his last start vs. MIA w/ 2 ER’s allowed in 7IP’s. However his 5/2 K/BB ratio didn’t impress… Actually, his 12/10 K/BB ratio in his L4 starts didn’t impress at all…

During his current 6-games quality performances he has faced some “favorable” matchups, have a look (Rankings vs. RHP’s this season):

MIA #13
PHI #28
NYM #25
ARI #13
PHI #28
HOU #26
…
LAD #5

LAD will be the first top 10 offense vs. RHP that he will face for quite some time… good luck with that!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 912 Los Angeles Dodgers ML (w/ J. Beckett) @ -144 / 1.69 on Betonline

MLB - 919 Chicago White Sox @ 920 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Quintana vs. A. Sanchez)

Play #4

I just can’t pass w/ the White Sox @ this current price w/ Quintana on the mound!

I had a play w/ him vs. KC but we lost it, certainly it was not because of his performance as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP’s of work. He has been simply brilliant lately w/ 2.95 FIP mark in June and 1.82 FIP in this month! I’m aware that the Tigers will be a tough matchup for him tonight, but I expect him to give his team a chance to win the game.

Note that we’ve ride w/ Sanchez in his last start @ARI:

“On the other end, Anibal Sanchez is coming from a strange outing vs. CLE in which he dominated in the first 6 IP’s just to implode in the 7th while giving up 4 ER’s. Nevertheless, his 7/1 K/BB ratio and 1.31 FIP & 1.94 xFIP numbers were good indicators for him. We must also not ignore the fact that CLE is a top 3 ranked team vs. RHP’s, so we have some good signs that Sanchez will bounce back today and be decent against this ARI offense.”

We won the play but he didn’t “bounce back” at all in that game: 11 hits, 5 ER’s & 4/1 K/BB ratio! He has now 3 subpar performances in his L4 starts, and IMO, Quintana is pitching clearly better right now.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Chicago White Sox ML (w/ J. Quintana) @ +154 / 2.54 on Betonline

MLB - 921 Toronto Blue Jays @ 922 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: M. Stroman vs. R. de la Rosa)

Play #5

TOR has a nice momentum, a way better SP on the mound and a better offense, so having the chance to get them at around ~ -110 is a valuable bet IMO.

Marcus Stroman was great vs. TEX w/ 1.71 FIP after the all star break, and then, he toyed w/ BOS lineup by posting 1H, 0ER’s, 7/2 K/BB ratio & 1.99 FIP!

On the other end, TOR destroyed Rubby De La Rosa w/ 6ER’s in just 4 IP’s. It was the 3rd consecutive subpar outing from him… He had 8.14, 4.28 & 7.14 FIP marks in those games and I really think that he won’t be able to slow down TOR’s offense tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Stroman) @ -108 / 1.92 on Betonline

MLB - 923 New York Yankees @ 924 Texas Rangers

MLB - 927 Oakland Athletics @ 928 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: B. McCarthy vs. N. Martinez)

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs. S. Feldman)

Play #6

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

I’ve decided to make a parlay play w/ NYY & OAK as I expect them to win tonight but their ML’s odds are a bit overpriced.

While B. McCarthy is finally having some well deserved performances w/ 3 consecutive outings in which he has allowed 1 ER’s in each game (he had 3.84 FIP in June & 2.40 FIP in this current month), I expect NYY to finally make some damage vs. N. Martinez! Martinez advanced numbers are awful w/ 4.73 ERA / 5.73 FIP / 5.71 xFIP but somehow he managed to held the Yankees scoreless in 5.1 IP’s in his last start. Now that the “surprise” factor is gone, I don’t think that he will repeat such good performance tonight.


OAK lost last night so we are catching them w/ “bounce back” mindset! I expect Samardzija to be decent like he was in his last start against this same Astros lineup in which he had 1.13 ERA + 3.26 FIP + 3.53 xFIP!

Feldman was pounded by the A’s in his last start and honestly, they are a nightmare matchup for him. He has some huge problems w/ his command lately = 12 walks in his L3 starts! He also has some awful numbers vs. LH batters: .297 BA + .352 wOBA + 4.15 FIP + 5.06 xFIP! Well, OAK is ranked #1 in the league in BB% w/ 9.5% and they will be loaded w/ LH batters on the lineup tonight, good luck Feldman!

*Parlay Play*

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 927 Oakland Athletics ML x New York Yankees ML @ +148 / 2.48 on Betonline