MLB Premium Card 07/28

MLB - 955 Philadelphia Phillies @ 956 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. B. Colon)

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

In this contest, I’m primarily fading PHI’s SP AJ. Burnett as I expect Colon to “outpitch” him.

Burnett is coming from an outstanding performance against the Giants in his last in which he held SFG scoreless for 8IP’s! The problem was that he made 131 (!) pitches! With “just” 4 days off, I expect him to tire and struggle a bit tonight.

I’ve made a research this season when Burnett’s throw +110 pitches, what happened in the following start?

113 vs. LAA, 05/14, next start -> 05/20 @MIA      3ER’s allowed w/ 5.40 ERA & 4.13 FIP
116 vs. NYM 05/30, next start -> 06/04 @WAS    8ER’s allowed w/ 12.00 ERA & 6.30 FIP
111 @STL 06/20, next start -> 06/25 vs. MIA       3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 2.13 FIP
116 @MIA 07/01, next start -> 07/06 @PIT          3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 1.99 FIP

He didn’t fare well in those games…

On the other end, I think that Colon will be decent tonight. He simply dominated the Mariners in his last start w/ great stats line of 2.45 ERA + 2.18 FIP + 3.73 xFIP. Unlike Burnett, he went deep in the game but managed to throw “just” 101 pitches, so he will be “fresh” and ready to go.

Split the wager (75% ML + 25% RL-1.5)

Pick: 3 units (Double Dime Play) on 956 New York Mets ML (w/ B. Colon) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 1 unit (Double Dime Play) on 956 New York Mets RL-1.5 (w/ B. Colon) @ +165 / 2.65 on 5 Dimes