Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Soccer World Cup Play 07/13: Germany vs. Argentina

Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs. Argentina

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

This is the big final and according to my numbers, we should be dealing w/ the Germans being favored to win @ around +100 / 2.00, so we are getting some value w/ them IMO.

I don’t expect any surprises in the starting lineups for both teams, and even their game plan is relatively “easy” to predict…

I expect Argentina to continue to use their “traditional” conservative style… I’ve talked a bit in their last game vs. Netherlands:

“These two teams are pretty similar in their “concept” of the game: they don’t take many risks when going forward, they have consistently 6 men well positioned defensively that won’t leave their position "for nothing", and obviously, they put almost all their “faith” that their best player solves the game for them: Messi for Argentina, and Robben for Netherlands.”

In that game, Argentina did a good defensive job in not allowing the Dutch team almost a single clear chance of goal (Netherlands’ only chance to score was already in the final minutes of the game). However, Argentina didn’t create many chances to score as well, so our Under Play was probably our easiest “winner play” of the tournament.

It is tough for them to create build-up plays with so few men on the front. Things got tougher when Di Maria got injured because his amazing pace on the break was a huge key factor for them. They still have Messi on the front, but teams have been smart, and they do not allow him to have much space. I don’t think this will change today w/ this organized Germany team.

Even though Argentina is doing a solid job on the defensive end, this is the first time in the tournament that they will face a team that knows exactly what to do when having possession…

Switzerland, Belgium and Netherlands were all more comfortable in playing @ counter-attack style against Argentina, and because the Argentines’ always defended w/ at least 6 players, it was tough for them to create scoring chances in fast-break occasions.

On the other side, this German squad plays @ possession style… they are patient w/ the ball and their midfield unit has some great creativity and off-the ball notion. They will find and create gaps on Argentina’s defense w/ their precise movement. Something that the Argentines’ opponents struggled to do that…

The best overall teams in this tournament IMO were this German team and France. Making a play in Germany in this final battle is just a correlation of what we’ve watched in this last month.  

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Germany (-0.25) +103 / 2.03 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -108 / 1.92 on Betonline)

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