NFL Super Bowl Play 02/02

NFL Super Bowl - 101 Seattle Seahawks @ 102 Denver Broncos

Play #1

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

My side fair line for this contest is DEN-3 so we really don’t have any significant edge in this market and I've decided to pass w/ Sides. The same thing cannot be said about the Totals because I really think we are getting some great value w/ Under.

The narrative for this Super Bowl actually it’s quite easy to understand it: DEN has the best offense in the league vs. SEA phenomenal defense (one of the best defenses in the history of the league).

The X factor for this contest in my opinion = TEMPO of the game that will favors a low scoring game!

Let me explain it…

DEN has changed their approach for this postseason…they are now a "controlling-offensive" team as their primary mindset is to keep and manage the ball possession using their awesome offensive diversity. They know they don't have the same weapons on the defensive side of the ball so they are trying to maximize the time w/ their offense.

Just check this out:

NFL Regular Season Rankings Average Time of Possession:

DEN ranked #16 w/ 30:01

However, in the 2 games of this season postseason:

35:27 vs. SD (that was #1 ranked team in this stat)

35:44 vs. NE

The perfect example was the 2 TD’s scored vs. NE in which both scoring drives lasted +7min w/ 10 and 13 plays! Having said that, it isn't going to be easy to score vs. this SEA defense that was ranking #1 BY FAR in passing defense w/ -34.3% DVOA.

On the other side, DEN defense is banged up especially w/ their secondary unit. However, SEA offense is a run-oriented unit w/ Pass/Rush ratio of 45%/55%, and I expect them to be conservative in this contest while riding their RB M. Lynch. However, DEN is actually a pretty underrated run defensive team by being ranked #9 during the regular season (#9 w/ -14.4%).

Already in the 2 playoffs games, they held SD to just 65 rushing yds for 3.6 yds/car, and in the last game vs. potent NE rushing offense that ran for 234 rushing yds vs. IND, DEN held NE to just 64 rushing yds!

I expect this contest to be played @slow tempo due to the mindset of both teams. DEN defense won’t be explored on their biggest weakness while DEN offense will keep their game plan while they are yet to face such tremendous defensive team like SEA is and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 101/102 Under 48.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline