NBA - 513 Miami Heat @ 514 Dallas Mavericks
Play #2
MIA defense has been a subpar unit for quite some time but IMO they will be a tough matchup for DAL’s offense tonight…
DAL is a mediocre offensive rebounding team (ranked #23 w/ 23.4% Offensive Rebounding%) and their frontcourt is far from being labeled “powerful”, so MIA’s biggest weakness won’t be explored in here.
DAL offense has been great all season long…their “bread & butter” offensive play(s) has been Pick n’ Roll’s w/ more than 31% of volume% where they are super efficient. The bad news for them is that MIA defense is ranked #1 in defending Pick n Rolls this season, and so I expect MIA to put some extra pressure on DAL’s ball handler’s and create some TO’s.
DAL defense hasn’t been capable of slowing down the best offensive teams in the league and certainly, the Heat is one of them. LeBron James will simply torch them w/ his passing & shooting ability.
With MIA’s defense being decent in this contest, I expect them to win tonight’s game because DAL won’t be able to slow down MIA’s offense.
DAL is a mediocre offensive rebounding team (ranked #23 w/ 23.4% Offensive Rebounding%) and their frontcourt is far from being labeled “powerful”, so MIA’s biggest weakness won’t be explored in here.
DAL offense has been great all season long…their “bread & butter” offensive play(s) has been Pick n’ Roll’s w/ more than 31% of volume% where they are super efficient. The bad news for them is that MIA defense is ranked #1 in defending Pick n Rolls this season, and so I expect MIA to put some extra pressure on DAL’s ball handler’s and create some TO’s.
DAL defense hasn’t been capable of slowing down the best offensive teams in the league and certainly, the Heat is one of them. LeBron James will simply torch them w/ his passing & shooting ability.
With MIA’s defense being decent in this contest, I expect them to win tonight’s game because DAL won’t be able to slow down MIA’s offense.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 515 Phoenix Suns @ 516 Denver Nuggets
Play #3
This Nuggets team is completely dependent of Ty Lawson. Obviously, on the defensive end, Lawson doesn’t add much value, but offensively, his quickness & explosiveness off the dribble is essential for the team’s offensive concept.
DEN isn’t a good outside shooting team and their frontcourt is limited in terms of creating their own shot. Lawson’s ability to create space for his teammates has been huge for the Nuggets this season and without him, DEN’s offense has been super stagnant. This is even more problematic when DEN simply doesn’t have any proper backup as Andre Miller & Nate Robinson aren’t available to play.
In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.
PHX will have a tremendous edge tonight w/ this exact factor because Dragic’s matchup vs. Foye is extremely favorable for PHX in both ends of the floor, as Foye doesn’t have the proper foot speed to stop Dragic’s dribble drive moves & Foye’s offense is basically = spot up plays.
K. Faried is having some huge problems on the defensive end vs. “stretch fours” and PHX’s PF’s are all players w/ some decent shooting range. The fact that PHX is 3-0 vs. DEN in this season is not a mere coincidence, and without Lawson, I expect PHX to sweep the series as they are really a bad matchup for DEN.
DEN isn’t a good outside shooting team and their frontcourt is limited in terms of creating their own shot. Lawson’s ability to create space for his teammates has been huge for the Nuggets this season and without him, DEN’s offense has been super stagnant. This is even more problematic when DEN simply doesn’t have any proper backup as Andre Miller & Nate Robinson aren’t available to play.
In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.
PHX will have a tremendous edge tonight w/ this exact factor because Dragic’s matchup vs. Foye is extremely favorable for PHX in both ends of the floor, as Foye doesn’t have the proper foot speed to stop Dragic’s dribble drive moves & Foye’s offense is basically = spot up plays.
K. Faried is having some huge problems on the defensive end vs. “stretch fours” and PHX’s PF’s are all players w/ some decent shooting range. The fact that PHX is 3-0 vs. DEN in this season is not a mere coincidence, and without Lawson, I expect PHX to sweep the series as they are really a bad matchup for DEN.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Phoenix Suns (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 San Antonio Spurs @ 518 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #4
Despite being banged up, the Spurs were able to be competitive as of late. However just look for their schedule: BOS, DET, CHA, BKN, WAS, NO & SAC…
Yes, not impressive right?! Tony Parker will miss tonight’s contest while Manu Ginobili is back although w/ limited minutes. Chris Paul is healthy and so, I really think that LAC will have a tremendous edge on the perimeter tonight.
SAS’s rebounding numbers have been awful lately – I have them w/ incredibly bad 45.3% reb/rate% while their interior defense has been subpar (looks like T. Splitter is OUT for tonight as well)… 4 of their L6 opponents were able to score +50 pts in the paint against the Spurs and for tonight, SAS will face a B. Griffin & D. Jordan….LAC is averaging 53.3 pts in the paint in L6 games!
LAC won’t waste this opportunity to crush the banged up Spurs that will miss some key players (starting PG & PF) – key positions where LAC is elite w/ CP3 & Griffin!
Yes, not impressive right?! Tony Parker will miss tonight’s contest while Manu Ginobili is back although w/ limited minutes. Chris Paul is healthy and so, I really think that LAC will have a tremendous edge on the perimeter tonight.
SAS’s rebounding numbers have been awful lately – I have them w/ incredibly bad 45.3% reb/rate% while their interior defense has been subpar (looks like T. Splitter is OUT for tonight as well)… 4 of their L6 opponents were able to score +50 pts in the paint against the Spurs and for tonight, SAS will face a B. Griffin & D. Jordan….LAC is averaging 53.3 pts in the paint in L6 games!
LAC won’t waste this opportunity to crush the banged up Spurs that will miss some key players (starting PG & PF) – key positions where LAC is elite w/ CP3 & Griffin!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 518 Los Angeles Clippers (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 New York Knicks @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #1
I expect the Knicks to be extremely competitive tonight... note that they are not better than the Grizzlies, but they match up well vs. MEM and especially, I think that MEM’s won’t be sharp in this spot.
Marc Gasol is not 100% healthy… you just need to watch some MEM’s games as of late to watch him being slow @ everything. Yes, his presence down low is still a major factor but against a jump shooting team like NYK is, I don’t expect him to offer much value to his team.
Mike Conley returns to action after some time being injured…it’s the second time that Conley has been injured this season and in the first one, Conley struggled a bit in the first games after being healthy, so I expect him to be “rusty” tonight.
Now that Tyson Chandler has been decent on the defensive end, I expect him to protect the rim vs. MEM frontcourt. The X factor of this contest is related w/ MEM defense vs. NYK offense…
MEM defense has been struggling on the perimeter as they are predicated to “protect the basket” and so, NYK’s outside shooting can cause some serious problems to MEM’s defense and this contest will be a close one.
Marc Gasol is not 100% healthy… you just need to watch some MEM’s games as of late to watch him being slow @ everything. Yes, his presence down low is still a major factor but against a jump shooting team like NYK is, I don’t expect him to offer much value to his team.
Mike Conley returns to action after some time being injured…it’s the second time that Conley has been injured this season and in the first one, Conley struggled a bit in the first games after being healthy, so I expect him to be “rusty” tonight.
Now that Tyson Chandler has been decent on the defensive end, I expect him to protect the rim vs. MEM frontcourt. The X factor of this contest is related w/ MEM defense vs. NYK offense…
MEM defense has been struggling on the perimeter as they are predicated to “protect the basket” and so, NYK’s outside shooting can cause some serious problems to MEM’s defense and this contest will be a close one.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 New York Knicks (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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