NBA - 707 Washington Wizards @ 708 Atlanta Hawks
Play #1 & #3
Both teams are coming from clear losses on their yesterday’s games and they are struggling a bit to be competitive as of late.
However the biggest difference is that (unfortunately) ATL is completely banged up right now and I really don’t think they will be able to hang around against a healthy WAS team because otherwise, this current line was perfect IMO.
ATL’s frontcourt will be without Horford, Antic & Ayon for tonight, so basically they’ll have Millsap, an “old” E. Brand that was forced to play 30 minutes last night vs. powerful IND’s frontcourt and also Mike Scott.
ATL’s best perimeter defensive player D. Carroll must likely is OUT for tonight and Lou Williams has been limited @b2b games. With all these injuries, ATL’s offense has been regressing pretty hard lately while their defense and rebounding has been subpar all season long.
The Wizards were awful defensively last night vs. TOR as the Raptors torched them on PNR’s using their aggressive guards & big men rolling to the basket – something that ATL right now don’t have the right personnel to explore this WAS’s weakness and so, I’m taking the Wizards in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Washington Wizards (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
*ADDED PLAY*
NOTE: two teams struggling w/ their confidence & in b2b spots, this totals is inflated IMO as my fair line = 200 points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Detroit Pistons @ 704 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #2
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 New York Knicks @ 710 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #4
I had a play w/ NYK last night but for tonight, I really don’t think they will be able to be competitive after their effort @MEM.
Carmelo Anthony played 42 minutes, JR Smith looked uncomfortable w/ the mask… Felton looked horrible as usual and during the day, there were plenty of trade rumors surrounding the team…we are not dealing w/ a focused and/or fired up team.
The Pelicans will have 3 major factors in my opinion that eventually will lead them in here: 1) they run a ton of PNR’s and they will face NYK’s ranked #30 defense vs. this play; 2) they look to push the pace and transition and as you might guess, NYK defense is terrible vs. transition (ranked #28) and 3) imagine Carmelo Anthony guarding Anthony Davis tonight….yep, I don't need to say one word about it...
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 San Antonio Spurs @ 718 Portland Trail Blazers
Play #5
On normal conditions, I wouldn't dare to play the “Under” in a matchup between the Spurs and the Blazers @210 points, but tonight’s contest is really a “unique” situation in my opinion.
First of all, LaMarcus Aldridge is OUT and so, POR will have to play without their best player… if POR is already a “jump shooting” team, without him, we can be sure that POR won’t score many points near the basket. The bad news for them is that SAS perimeter defense has been gradually improving as of late and in L10 games they are allowing just 33.1% 3pts% - #6 best mark in the league!
SAS is coming from a “primetime” game @LAC last night, so this isn’t a good spot for them, especially for Tim Duncan who played 38 minutes last night. This would be a great matchup to Tony Parker on the offensive end vs. D. Lillard but…Parker is OUT as well!
My fair line for this contest adjust to all the key injuries is 205/207 points, and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 719 Golden State Warriors @ 720 Sacramento Kings
Play #6
Andrew Bogut is OUT for this contest and automatically, the Warriors would be in deep trouble in this matchup because they really don’t have anyone that would be able to guard D. Cousins…. The good news is that Cousins must likely is OUT as well and so, without having to deal w/ him, GSW perimeter defense will do the “rest” as they in another level when compared w/ SAC perimeter defense.
SAC is 0-7 in this season without Cousins for some reason… their offense will be completely focused on their perimeter and I think that GSW defense will be decent in here as Iguodala will guard R. Gay & GSW is a top 10 defensive team defending PNR’s.
SAC is ranked just #28 in defending 3pts% so we can expect GSW’s guards to torch them from outside.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Golden State Warriors (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 721 Houston Rockets @ 722 Los Angeles Lakers
Play #7
NOTE: no detailed write up for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Houston Rockets (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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